GA-06 and SC-05 election day & results thread

[100% pro-life no matter what]

NYT just moved their projection from Handel +0.8 to Handel +0.6. Clearly she's done for.

Now she's down to +0.5!

Up to 0.9!

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I'm almost more worried about SC-5 than GA-6 right now.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Handel up to 78 on PredicIt. Norman still at 95, not much reaction there.

Yeah, I just looked at the map, and none of the overwhelmingly GOP upstate is in yet.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Cherokee County just dropped all of its votes, and Norman now leads by just under 2.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

SC-5 is down to just York, where Norman already has a lead.  We're good there!

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I am very close to calling this for Handel.

I'm actually getting a little more worried.  DDHQ just tweeted something that made it sound like this is going down to the wire.  The Politico model looks awful for Handel, but Nate Silver did explain a couple possible flaws in it.  The NY Times one looks great for Handel, though.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Disastrous results for the GOP tonight

Nice try.

I mean it's not disastrous in the sense that GOP will win the seats tonight, but like. Idk I'd think it were pretty disastrous if the GOP came within 2 points of winning Rep. Grace Meng's seat for example.

SC is a pretty awful result, but they could have done much worse in GA, so I'd say it's a wash. I know it's a controversial opinion on here, but I don't believe that special elections are a 100% foolproof barometer to predict the results of the midterm elections.

Especially since there are no incumbents in special elections.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

DDHQ calls it for Norman.  NYT too.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

A pretty big jump for Handel from the NYT

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Wasserman: "DAVID WASSERMAN 9:12 PM
In the last few minutes, Ossoff’s fortunes have taken a turn for the worse … just how much worse, it’s going to take a few minutes to assess"

[100% pro-life no matter what]

If Democrats think they're going to be taking the House in 2018, this is a district they'll likely need to win.  This is supposed to be their brand new "winning coalition" of educated whites.  Epic fail.

No its not this would be a dems having a 50 seat majority seat

Things won't go in order of the 2016 House vote (pre-Trump as president) results, especially with entrenched incumbents in most of the other ones.  A realistic Democratic path to a majority would include GA-6.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Handel's lead is now over 5 points

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Politico has deactivated their model, per Nate Silver

[100% pro-life no matter what]

If Democrats think they're going to be taking the House in 2018, this is a district they'll likely need to win.  This is supposed to be their brand new "winning coalition" of educated whites.  Epic fail.

No its not this would be a dems having a 50 seat majority seat

False

LOL ok well your posts in this thread so far have been insubstansive a so not sure why i continue to bother to reply but if i was head of the DCCC this would be on the extra seat list to take the house.  Actually i think dems need to focus on the rust belt and parts of Appalachia for 2018, in particular WV-2,3 and I think its KY-6 (the one in eastern kentucky dems had til 2012).

The seat has an R+8 PVI and the SC seat is actually imo much more alarming for the GOP considering it should not have swing much at all it should be an inelastic rural southern seat unless im missing some unique faceat of this district.

Extremely low turnout- Republicans didn't show up to the polls, thinking it to be a safe seat

[100% pro-life no matter what]

On balance, the trend for the Democratic Party is still positive. Remember, the SC result has about the same weight as the GA 06 result, and would have more impact in the House swing. The base would have been happy with a win, but I don't think this was again, a bad night, for Democrats. Losing GA 06 by 6 and losing SC by 15 would have been bad. Losing GA 06 by 2 and losing SC by 3 is not a bad night at all.

Mixed, yeah, but the trend remains positive for the Democratic Party.

Are you supporting the Dems now?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

DDHQ calls it for Handel

[100% pro-life no matter what]

If nothing else this does put to rest all those post saying "Those voters just didn't like Trump,  once he's gone they'll swing back"

Sorry, that ain't happening people.

Except that he is the president.  If this seat somehow had a special election under President Clinton, the Republicans would have won it by 25 points.