Florida and the Trump Cuban policy

[Sir Mohamed]

It's nothing new that Cuban Americans, which are a substantial part of the the Sunshine State's electorate, tend more towards the GOP and favor a harsh policy towards the Castro regime. Might Trump's partly reversal of the Cuban Thaw affect in some way FL's vote and give Trump (or Pence) an advantage? I think it's hard to predict. On one hand, the Cuban Americans are already more GOP, but on the other hand FL is always very close and just a minor swing could decide the outcome. While turnout and mobilization is still a factor to consider as well. Thoughts on this?

[Sir Mohamed]

Cubans trended sharply D even in 2016, look at Dade county. Trump did terribly there but won Florida because of his big margins in formerly close white working class areas like Volusia, Flagler, Pasco.

Correct, but some of them just were embrassed of the Trumpster. Rubio won his race by a decent margin. If some of these Clinton/Rubio voters return to the GOP, especially if Pence is the candidate, and Dems can't significatly increase their number of voters through a higher turnout, the GOP is somewhat favored to take these pivotal 29 electoral votes again. Even though I still believe that the Dem's path to 270 is somewhat easier without FL than for the GOP.