Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Wednesday - September 3, 2008

Obama - 49% (-1)
McCain - 43% (+1)

Well that's no fun. I guess the bounce is starting to wear off a little.

look, all the polls over Labor Day weekend should be ignored.  We won't know anything until late next week.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Wednesday - September 3, 2008

Obama - 49% (-1)
McCain - 43% (+1)

Well that's no fun. I guess the bounce is starting to wear off a little.

look, all the polls over Labor Day weekend should be ignored.  We won't know anything until late next week.

McCain will probably still be experiencing his convention bounce then...

then wait another week.  but Labor Day weekend is a terrible time to poll

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Monday, September 8

McCain - 49% (+1)
Obama - 44% (-1)

Nothing too nuts...

I think independents are going to start leaking towards McCain.  The Palin pick has legs.  And as the smears start to subside and she continues showing she's competent, more independents will be drawn to her.  Having survived the first week, the Palin train has left the station.  She also needs to start making the late night talk show rounds.

And with Palin getting a lot of attention, it's going to be hard for Obama to win news cycles from now to election day. Being gaffe prone and flip-flopping doesn't help him either.

Obama needs the following things to win:
1) no new international crisis until election day (Russia, Iran, etc)
2) Obama has to at least tie McCain in the debates.  It's likely neither Obama or McCain will score a knockout punch during the debates.
3) Biden needs to win his debate.  If Palin comes anywhere close, expect more women to drift her way.  The Biden/Palin debate is probably the biggest risk to the Obama campaign.  A Palin win could very well end this campaign, especially if she does so without coming across as being too rabid (more of a barracuda and less of an attack dog).

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

WHY CAN'T MCCAIN GET ABOVE 50%?

WHY CAN'T MCCAIN COMPLETE THE SALE?

give her time, son, give her time

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

WHY CAN'T MCCAIN GET ABOVE 50%?

WHY CAN'T MCCAIN COMPLETE THE SALE?

give her time, son, give her time

Heh....her

I'm guessing you're talking about Palin.  I want to know what you have to say about the fact that she once tried to have certain books banned in her town as mayor...  Seriously.  All you Palin freaks, answer to that. 

the story lacks a context of a motive.  1) Was she trying to ban certain books out of the children's section?  2) Was she trying to ban obscene pronographic material? 3) Or was she simply trying to ban books she disagreed with?

if 1 or 2, then she's in the clear.  If 3, then she has a very serious problem.

But, I haven't been able to find her motive, and without a motive, we don't know what it was she was trying to do

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

y r gallup and ras diverging?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Obama - 47% (-1)
McCain - 44% (nc)

Not enjoying this week so much.

http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/rids/20080915/i/r288450244.jpg?x=400&y=264&q=85&sig=.4wOq4XrAK2zyT3V0vrsuw--

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Thursday, September 25, 2008
Obama - 46% (-1)
McCain - 46% (+2)

No joke.

No, joke.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Obama 48% (-1)
McCain 44% (+1)

don't tease me like that! 

dead cat bounce?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

McCain should be tied by Friday.

you are MEAN!

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

When the chart of the last 7 days is (from beginning to end):

                           (D1)  (D2)  (D3/BO)   (today)
+/-0, O+3, O+5, O+8, O+8, O+6,        O+4

is Gallup the only one showing this trend towards McCain in the last couple of days?  seems to me McCain has stabilized at 6 - 8 points behind.  but, of course, when you fall a cliff, you eventually come to rest somewhere, though you may bounce a little before coming to a final resting place.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Friday, October 3rd

Obama: 49 (+1)
Mccain: 42 (-1)

so the polls are in agreement again

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Wednesday, October 8:

Obama: 52 (+1)
McCain: 41 (-1)

yeah, well this race has been over for 3 weeks now

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

So a small summary of Obama's leads in today's tracking polls:

Gallup: Obama +10 (-1)
Rasmussen: Obama +5 (-)
Diego/Hotline: Obama +7 (+1)
Battleground: Obama +8 (+5)
DailyKos: Obama +12 (+2)
Reuters/Zogby: Obama +4 (-)

thanks for the summary, I was search for the others but am having trouble finding them since they are no longer stickied

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Drudge:  ZOGBY TUESDAY: OBAMA 49%, MCCAIN 43%... DEVELOPING...

throw it out

sorry, misread it, thought is was gallup

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

10/14/08

Obama 51 (nc)
McCain 42 (+1)

is this LV or RV?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

LV (new voter formula)
Obama 53
McCain 43

LV (traditional)
Obama 51
McCain 45

which one is better?

Since they really don't describe how they come to a determination, it is hard for me to say what exactly the method is and why one should be better.  My question for Vorlon to ask Gallup is which of the 13 questions do they remove in the new model.

I note that the traditional determination (for today) produces a 76.6% RV turnout, whereas the new voter model produces an 82.0% RV turnout.

RV turnout in 2004 was 72.9%.  Therefore, I would tend to go with the traditional model.

yes, and given the excitement in the GOP base for Palin, I would think it's closer to the traditional model.

Obama has shattered the blindness he once preached of ending the war and bringing all the troops home, so I think the youth vote (which rarely materializes anyway) is not going to markedly increase over 2004 levels.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

October 15, 2008

RV
Obama 50 (-1)
McCain 43 (+1)

LV (new voter formula)
Obama 52 (-1)
McCain 44 (+1)

LV (traditional)
Obama 49 (-2)
McCain 46 (+1)

Please don't give me reason to wish.  I was content with hopelessness.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

October 16, 2008

RV
Obama 49 (-1)
McCain 43 (nc)

LV (new voter formula)
Obama 51 (-1)
McCain 45 (+1)

LV (traditional)
Obama 49 (nc)
McCain 47 (+1)

great, now opebo, J.J., and Keystone Phil will be seen as oracles.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

This is starting to get too close for comfort again, at least in the national tracking polls.

don't worry, why would independents break for McCain after how erractic his campaign has been? 

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

HELLLLLOOO PRESIDENT OBAMA!!

yeah, sure seems that way

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Wednesday, October 29th, 2008

RV
Obama: 51% (+1)
McCain: 42% (-1)

LV (Expanded)
Obama: 51% (nc)
McCain: 44% (nc)

LV (Traditional)
Obama: 49%
McCain: 46% (-1)

for McCain to win, this is what the final Gallup poll would have to look like, IMO:

RV
Obama: 49%
McCain: 44%

LV (Expanded)
Obama: 49%
McCain: 46%

LV (Traditional)
Obama: 48%
McCain: 47%

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

At this point McCain would probably need to be ahead by at least 2 or 3 points in the traditional voter model to account for early voting.

that brings up a question:  don't these polls query those who have already voted early?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

The race is not tightening. Any upset by McCain will be because of illegitimate reasons.

of course, anytime the Republican wins it is illegitimate