By what amount would Clinton have to win IA to make NH competitive?

[Crumpets]

I imagine if she wins very narrowly, much of the news spin will be about how close Sanders made what was originally seen as an uncompetitive race, and it will effectively be seen as a win for Sanders. On the other hand, if it's not even close, the spin will be all about how Sanders was built up to be more of a challenger than he ever really was, giving Clinton some momentum. What would be the cutoff point between "clear Clinton victory" and "can't shake the Bern"?

I think a 10-point win would be fairly convincing.

[Crumpets]

I think that even a less-than comfortable win would give her some momentum, but it woulud take a landslide to really put it in play. Like, 10 points, and that's generous.

Wait... what? Have people already forgotten what happened in 2008? NH women will turn out in record-high numbers for Hillary. Sanders will be lucky to break 35% among women. NH is a "lean Clinton" state in the primary, regardless of what happens in IA. The women's vote in NH is as elastic as the Black vote in MS.

That was in 2008...there have been polls showing Bernie getting well over 35% among women. I suggest you start reading polls.

I understand why you would think that, but I disagree. It's a different set of circumstances. This year, we have a two-way contest rather than a three-way between Clinton, Obama, and Edwards. Bernie also has a large base of support among young people that I think he will turn out, which could somewhat mitigate the gains among the elderly and women that led Clinton to victory that year.

How is that different from Obama? We saw how well young people helped him in '08.

[Crumpets]

What happens in Iowa won't make a difference. People in New Hampshire make up their own minds.

I suspect TNvolunteer will beg to differ.