Which Republican can you see losing R-leaning Missouri? (user search)
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  Which Republican can you see losing R-leaning Missouri? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Which Republican can you see losing R-leaning Missouri?  (Read 1946 times)
EliteLX
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,040
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.64, S: 0.85

« on: December 16, 2015, 10:42:24 AM »

No actual candidate with an R next to their name is losing MO in less than 11 months.

Common sense.
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EliteLX
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,040
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.64, S: 0.85

« Reply #1 on: December 16, 2015, 04:52:19 PM »
« Edited: December 16, 2015, 04:59:33 PM by EliteLX »

Just like "common sense" suggested that we should be seeing a tense battle for the GOP nomination between Jeb Bush and Scott Walker, with Rand Paul proving a resilient underdog?

Early primary predictions of a group full of nearly 20 people has absolutely zero correlation with simple statistics, state trend strength, and state demographics. MO isn't voting Democrat in 11 months with any of the candidates left available in the GOP primary. MO loss would probably correlate with an 8% popular vote loss, something no GOP candidate will produce against Hillary in less than a year.
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EliteLX
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,040
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.64, S: 0.85

« Reply #2 on: December 16, 2015, 04:56:44 PM »
« Edited: December 16, 2015, 05:02:43 PM by EliteLX »

Bush, Paul, and Kasich would all lose Missouri.

Romney won MO by 10%. Bush, Kasich, and Paul aren't losing the state. You're absolutely delusional and pull your ideas out of thin air, sir.
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EliteLX
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,040
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.64, S: 0.85

« Reply #3 on: December 16, 2015, 05:06:18 PM »
« Edited: December 16, 2015, 05:10:38 PM by EliteLX »

Bush, Paul, and Kasich would all lose Missouri.

Romney won MO by 10%. Bush, Kasich, and Paul aren't losing the state. You're absolutely delusional and pull your ideas out of thin air, sir.

And Obama came within 4,000 votes of winning it in 2008.  I think Clinton could win the state in a landslide election, like what would happen if she were up against low energy losers like Bush, Kasich, and Paul.

And once again, you're absolutely delusional if you think Hillary 2016 is Barack Obama 2008. Absolutely out of your mind. Obama '08 was the probably the strongest Democratic candidate, election force, ground game, and coalition in recent party history. To add the cherry on top, McCain was an old grumpy boring man following up on an administration with a mid-30's approval rating.

.. and Jeb, Kasich and Paul aren't producing anything close to a national landslide. Any political expert would call you a complete idiot for claiming that. Jeb's actual history is polling tight, if not LEADING Hillary in a variety of swing state polls & national polling. Find something better to do than dream up and shout ignorance because it ruffles your political panties.
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EliteLX
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,040
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.64, S: 0.85

« Reply #4 on: December 16, 2015, 05:12:27 PM »
« Edited: December 16, 2015, 05:18:12 PM by EliteLX »

Bush, Paul, and Kasich would all lose Missouri.

Romney won MO by 10%. Bush, Kasich, and Paul aren't losing the state. You're absolutely delusional and pull your ideas out of thin air, sir.

And Obama came within 4,000 votes of winning it in 2008.  I think Clinton could win the state in a landslide election, like what would happen if she were up against low energy losers like Bush, Kasich, and Paul.

And once again, you're absolutely delusional if you think Hillary 2016 is Barack Obama 2008. Absolutely out of your mind. Obama '08 was the probably the strongest Democratic candidate, election force, ground game, and coalition in recent party history. To add the cherry on top, McCain was an old grumpy boring man following up on an administration with a mid-30's approval rating.

.. and Jeb, Kasich and Paul aren't producing anything close to a national landslide. Any political expert would call you a complete idiot for claiming that. Jeb's actual history is polling tight, if not LEADING Hillary in a variety of swing state polls & national polling. Find something better to do than dream up and shout ignorance because it ruffles your political panties.

It was only the 12th best Democrat margin ever.  Figures that a person who supports a low energy loser like Jeb would be so misinformed.

I'm not claiming PV margin. That doesn't take into account the national social picture at the time nor the opposing candidate or the campaign season controversies and events. Obama was one of the strongest most charismatic Democratic candidates, had the strongest election force and ground game and had an extremely powerful coalition.

Anyways, I'll jump back to the point that Hillary in 2016 will not come close to Obama '08s strength nor complete a landslide election. ESPECIALLY against Jeb, Kasich, or Paul. Thanks.
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EliteLX
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,040
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.64, S: 0.85

« Reply #5 on: December 16, 2015, 05:15:56 PM »

Bush, Paul, and Kasich would all lose Missouri.

Romney won MO by 10%. Bush, Kasich, and Paul aren't losing the state. You're absolutely delusional and pull your ideas out of thin air, sir.

And Obama came within 4,000 votes of winning it in 2008.  I think Clinton could win the state in a landslide election, like what would happen if she were up against low energy losers like Bush, Kasich, and Paul.

And once again, you're absolutely delusional if you think Hillary 2016 is Barack Obama 2008. Absolutely out of your mind. Obama '08 was the probably the strongest Democratic candidate, election force, ground game, and coalition in recent party history. To add the cherry on top, McCain was an old grumpy boring man following up on an administration with a mid-30's approval rating.

.. and Jeb, Kasich and Paul aren't producing anything close to a national landslide. Any political expert would call you a complete idiot for claiming that. Jeb's actual history is polling tight, if not LEADING Hillary in a variety of swing state polls & national polling. Find something better to do than dream up and shout ignorance because it ruffles your political panties.

It was only the 12th best Democrat margin ever.  Figures that a person who supports a low energy loser like Jeb would be so misinformed.

I'm not claiming margin. That doesn't take into account the national social picture at the time nor the opposing candidate or the campaign season events/controversy. Obama was one of the strongest most charismatic Democratic candidate, had the strongest election force and ground game and had an extremely powerful coalition.


I'm seeing a lot of adjectives and not a lot of evidence.  Jeb supporters are all bluster and no substance.

Just so happens you run to remarks when you look like an idiot.

Have a nice day buddy.
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EliteLX
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,040
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.64, S: 0.85

« Reply #6 on: December 17, 2015, 10:57:47 AM »

Worth noting that in say december of 2007 Indiana would be seen as a leaning/safe R seat, considering Bush got 59% in 04, and it hadn't been won by the democrats since 1964.

Now I'm not saying its going to happen-I'm just saying that it's a state that can in the worse (or best) case flip

I'd never deny MO isn't a state that can flip across party lines, it's just not reasonable in 2016.

2004 -> 2008 for Republicans is a mile apart from 2012 -> 2016 for Republicans. Keep that in mind, friend.
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