2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions

[Figueira]

I don't feel like doing a map right now, but:

Safe D: CA, WA, OR, CT, NY, VT, MD, HI
Likely D: CO, IL, WI
Lean D: NH, PA
Tossup (Tilt D): NV, IN
Tossup (Tilt R): NC, FL
Lean R: AZ, MO
Likely R: OH, LA, IA, GA
Safe R: ND, SD, AK, ID, UT, SC, AL, OK, AR, KY, KS

[Figueira]

Under vote of Latinos in Vegas, anyways it was always gonna be a 51/49 Senate. Bayh entry into race deferred resources from FL and OH.

There may be many explanations. But essentially Democrats have no room for errors now: they must win 4 out of 5 (Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire) AND hold Nevada (or lose it and win all 5) - that will not be simple task...

And Republicans have no room for errors either, in Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, or Arizona.

A lot of this depends on the presidential race though; I think it's equally possible that the race will tighten, or that it will widen again and result in a Clinton semi-landslide dragging a few Republican Senators down. The Republican Senate candidates can distance themselves from Trump, but only up to a point.