The absentee/early vote thread

[HillOfANight]

My guess is that the true believers are coming out for Trump with in person voting, but it should revert to traditional trends of Democrats dominating early voting. TargetSmart's #s look weird/outdated for North Carolina, unless they think white Dems are Republicans this year...

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/789477974353518592
Registered Republicans were only 24% of 1st day in person voters.

[HillOfANight]

Nevada is unsettling.

In person voting starts there Saturday. Watch for a huge swing.

[HillOfANight]

Georgia early vote demographics (10/20)

White: 270,554 (62.5%)
African-American: 122,660 (28.4%)
Hispanic: 4,124 (1.0%)
Other: 7,058 (1.6%)
Unknown: 28,217 (6.5%)

Michael hasn't tweeted yet, but I checked his spreadsheet and it's a bit concerning... Since 10/20, whites are down 0.1%, blacks down 1.2%, other up 0.4%, unknown up 0.8%.

White: 403,067 - 62.4%
Black: 175,732   - 27.2%
Hispanic: 6,752   - 1%
Other: 12,896 - 2%
Unknown: 47,264 - 7.3%

Total: 645,711

[HillOfANight]

Georgia early vote demographics (10/20)

White: 270,554 (62.5%)
African-American: 122,660 (28.4%)
Hispanic: 4,124 (1.0%)
Other: 7,058 (1.6%)
Unknown: 28,217 (6.5%)

Michael hasn't tweeted yet, but I checked his spreadsheet and it's a bit concerning... Since 10/20, whites are down 0.1%, blacks down 1.2%, other up 0.4%, unknown up 0.8%.

White: 403,067 - 62.4%
Black: 175,732   - 27.2%
Hispanic: 6,752   - 1%
Other: 12,896 - 2%
Unknown: 47,264 - 7.3%

Total: 645,711

I wouldn't be too concerned as of yet.  IIRC Griffin said that many people who were registered under unknown were African Americans who were not able to or haven't changed the designation.  I could be remembering wrong though, so just better ask him.

http://www.peachpundit.com/2014/10/30/examination-voting-history-shows-changing-demographics-affect-2014-elections/#comment-392573
Mark Rountree (Landmark pollster) has said his research shows unknown to be 2/3 minority. Still, odd that weekend voting and blacks declined. Maybe expanded early voting 10/29 will flip the numbers.

[HillOfANight]

Georgia early vote demographics (10/20)

White: 270,554 (62.5%)
African-American: 122,660 (28.4%)
Hispanic: 4,124 (1.0%)
Other: 7,058 (1.6%)
Unknown: 28,217 (6.5%)

Michael hasn't tweeted yet, but I checked his spreadsheet and it's a bit concerning... Since 10/20, whites are down 0.1%, blacks down 1.2%, other up 0.4%, unknown up 0.8%.

White: 403,067 - 62.4%
Black: 175,732   - 27.2%
Hispanic: 6,752   - 1%
Other: 12,896 - 2%
Unknown: 47,264 - 7.3%

Total: 645,711

I wouldn't be too concerned as of yet.  IIRC Griffin said that many people who were registered under unknown were African Americans who were not able to or haven't changed the designation.  I could be remembering wrong though, so just better ask him.

http://www.peachpundit.com/2014/10/30/examination-voting-history-shows-changing-demographics-affect-2014-elections/#comment-392573
Mark Rountree (Landmark pollster) has said his research shows unknown to be 2/3 minority. Still, odd that weekend voting and blacks declined. Maybe expanded early voting 10/29 will flip the numbers.

So the real demographic numbers are something like 64% white, 30% African-American, and 5% other

http://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/2012/10/georgia-black-turnout-on-record-pace-147409
http://gapundit.com/2014/08/26/2010-and-2012-general-election-voter-turnout-by-race/
In 2012, late October, blacks were 33% of early voting, and including final election day turnout, ended up at 30%.

http://www.electproject.org/2008_early_vote
In 2008, blacks were 34.9% of early voting (ended up ~30% of overall turnout).

So unless she starts polling really well with whites, the black turnout needs to increase a lot.

[HillOfANight]

Well I downloaded the Georgia absentee files and learned that Clayton, Bibb, Richmond, Rockdale, etc. (heavily Black/Obama counties) don't have weekend voting until October 29, so that definitely explains a lot...

[HillOfANight]

Not sure exactly. Those areas are probably controlled by Democrats.

On the plus side, just checking Clayton (Obama 85 Romney 15), they'll have Sunday voting October 30th.

Fulton (64 Obama 35 Romney) is also voting this Sunday and next, and Dekalb (78 Obama 21 Romney) in a few places on 10/30 (Sunday).

[HillOfANight]

Ok his spreadsheet now says "Counting all returned ballots as mail ballots, including in-person. Will fix."

[HillOfANight]

http://www.insight-us.org/blog/north-carolinas-early-voting-2016-dashboard/

North Carolina

With 385,000 ballots now cast, turnout remains below 2012’s pace, but not by much (95% of 2012’s rate for the corresponding period). That’s a very substantial change from the 81% we reported on October 20th, just before Early Voting began.

Turnout is down not surprisingly in 28 counties that have restricted early voting, but in normal counties, it's up across all parties, especially unaffiliateds.



A warning sign for Clinton, black turnout is 75% of what it was in 2012, compared to 102% among whites. It does mention that this Sunday's souls to the polls could alleviate that.

[HillOfANight]

Is there a way to know how many white Democrats will vote Clinton?
https://enr.ncsbe.gov/voter_stats/results.aspx?date=10-22-2016
39% of all voters are Democrats, 30% are Republicans, yet the presidential races have been tight... Polls usually break out results by party ID, not registration.

[HillOfANight]

https://projectnewamerica.com/sites/projectnewamerica.com/files/Arizona%20State%20of%20Play%20-%20EV%20Edition.pdf?nid=999

There are 709K registered Hispanics in Arizona, up 37%/192K from 517K in 2012

[HillOfANight]

Gabriel Debenedetti ‏@gdebenedetti  2m2 minutes ago
Even more Team HRC cheering of early vote #s: they note there's been a *99%* increase in Latino voting in FL compared to this point in '12

Are we sure this isn't a typo? I mean how could it be possible?

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/784107933411991555
They have been broadcasting this for weeks. Ground game.

[HillOfANight]

Gabriel Debenedetti ‏@gdebenedetti  2m2 minutes ago
Even more Team HRC cheering of early vote #s: they note there's been a *99%* increase in Latino voting in FL compared to this point in '12

Are we sure this isn't a typo? I mean how could it be possible?

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/784107933411991555
They have been broadcasting this for weeks. Ground game.

I know that but for that number to be true it must mean that virtually zero Hispanics voted early in 2012.

Not really. Maybe 50k early voted before and now 100k have.

[HillOfANight]

Gabriel Debenedetti ‏@gdebenedetti  2m2 minutes ago
Even more Team HRC cheering of early vote #s: they note there's been a *99%* increase in Latino voting in FL compared to this point in '12

Are we sure this isn't a typo? I mean how could it be possible?

https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/784107933411991555
They have been broadcasting this for weeks. Ground game.

I know that but for that number to be true it must mean that virtually zero Hispanics voted early in 2012.

No.  Suppose 100 voted early in 2012.  If 199 voted early in 2016, that would be an increase of 99.  Divide this by the original number (100) and it's a 99% increase.

Got it. Still, it's a startling number, especially considering that a few days ago California Democrats were delighted because the Latino early vote was up "only" 43%.

That's not a swing state where resources are being poured though. Also, the 99% is not completely organic. I read there's a law if you voted in 2014, you could request to automatically get mail ballots in the future.

http://www.news-journalonline.com/news/20160929/voting-early-record-number-of-florida-voters-request-absentee-ballots

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[HillOfANight]

http://www.insight-us.org/blog/north-carolinas-early-voting-2016-dashboard/

North Carolina

With 385,000 ballots now cast, turnout remains below 2012’s pace, but not by much (95% of 2012’s rate for the corresponding period). That’s a very substantial change from the 81% we reported on October 20th, just before Early Voting began.

Turnout is down not surprisingly in 28 counties that have restricted early voting, but in normal counties, it's up across all parties, especially unaffiliateds.



A warning sign for Clinton, black turnout is 75% of what it was in 2012, compared to 102% among whites. It does mention that this Sunday's souls to the polls could alleviate that.

Not seeing why Clinton should be concerned if Democrats are doing much better than 2012 (compared to GOP) with a whiter electorate. I suppose we will see how souls to the polls impacts African American turnout.

http://www.insight-us.org/blog/north-carolinas-early-voting-2016-dashboard/

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[HillOfANight]

http://www.insight-us.org/blog/north-carolinas-early-voting-2016-dashboard/

Overall story is that the GOP is picking up fast.

The Black vote is now 77% vs the comparable period (75% last update). Whites are now 108% (was 102%).

[HillOfANight]

Even when isolated to where sites weren't reduced, Blacks are 91% of where they were, whites 128%.

[HillOfANight]

http://www.insight-us.org/blog/north-carolinas-early-voting-2016-dashboard/

Overall story is that the GOP is picking up fast.

The Black vote is now 77% vs the comparable period (75% last update). Whites are now 108% (was 102%).

lol that's one (wrong) way to interpret the numbers.

What's a good way to interpret it? 10/26, Dr. Bitzer says
http://www.oldnorthstatepolitics.com/2016/10/nearing-million-absentee-ballots-in.html

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Kind of odd that after underperforming mail ballots, GOP is doing relatively better with early voting (Bitzer's numbers are for combined mail/early vote). Maybe the excited Trump supporters are voting early, but they'll peter off. Still, I don't see how one can spin the week's past numbers as a good sign for Clinton.

[HillOfANight]

I was just hoping Republicans would continue their abysmal mail margins, but it seems more like a race now. Hopefully Dems extend their leads again with more voting sites next week.

[HillOfANight]

Good numbers from CNN
http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/26/politics/early-voting-statistics-2016-election/index.html

Arizona
Dems ahead by 4,116 votes, a major improvement from their position at this time four years ago, when they trailed by 21,179.

Colorado
Democrats have outvoted Republicans by more than 10,000. At this point in 2012, Republicans had the advantage by about 7,600 votes.

Florida
Republicans currently hold an 18,120-vote advantage, a paltry amount compared to their 113,222-vote edge at this time in 2008.

Nevada
Democrats hold a nearly 15,000-vote lead, a slight improvement from their position in 2012.

North Carolina
Democrats better than their 2012 pace, but Black vote only 25% share vs 30% in 2012.

Utah
At this point in 2012, Republicans led Democrats in early voting by more than 31,000 voters. But so far this year, the GOP advantage is only 15,834.

Iowa
Democrats are ahead of Republicans in the latest early vote count, but their margin is lower than it was at this point in 2012, to the tune of about 7,200 votes

[HillOfANight]

Targetsmart uses a variety of factors to estimate party affiliation (race, Facebook activity, etc). I'm sure they considered the crossover vote in the primaries.

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/791385700730101894
Latest NBC Marist poll in Nevada has Clinton up 25 points in early voting (60-35)

[HillOfANight]

In Florida, Democrats have requested 3557 more absentee ballots + votes in VBM but the GOP has about a 35.5K lead in just ballots cast. Are some Dems requesting VBM ballots and deciding to vote in person?

They could just not be returning their ballots.

Or because they're no immediately filling out the ballots...

I mean like the election is 12 days away (because mail for today has already ended on the East Coast) so they better get those ballots in.

Depends on the state, some will still count it if postmarked on Election Day.

In Florida, vote by mail requests terminate on November 2 and must be received no later than 7 PM on Election Day. Therefore, to ensure that the votes are counted, they should be sent by November 1 or 2 or hand-delivered to a voting station on Election Day itself

Thanks for the official word!

You're welcome.

Now for an interesting treat...here are some SOUTH Carolina early voting demographics

White: 108,256 (66.8%)
African-American: 52,936 (32.7%)
Hispanic: 638 (0.4%)
Unknown: 113 (0.1%)

Whoa! Higher than Georgia (the white vote too though). What's it like in the past.

[HillOfANight]

Georgia: Doesn't look great for Clinton (compared to final early vote #s of previous years, but not safe for Trump either. Counties are required to have Saturday voting in 2 days which should help, plus sites dramatically expand in Gwinnett and others starting Monday the 31st.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164112.msg3507207#msg3507207

2008 Early Vote:
White: 60.4%
Black: 34.9%
Other: 4.7%

2012 Early Vote:
White: 59.0%
Black: 33.7%
Other: 7.3%

2016 Early Vote:
White: 61.6%
Black: 28.5%
Other: 9.9%

[HillOfANight]

Cool! Is that requests though? (check Ballot Status = A)
http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

It says Michael has 1.04M requests, and 936K voted.