538 Model Megathread (user search)
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Author Topic: 538 Model Megathread  (Read 85356 times)
Classic Conservative
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,628
« on: July 25, 2016, 06:55:58 PM »
Quote from: jaichind on July 25, 2016, 06:55:23 PM
I am surprised the Nov Polls-only forecast has Trump's chances at 47%.   I would imagine the model takes into account the temporary GOP post-convention bounce.   
It did
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Classic Conservative
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,628
« Reply #1 on: August 28, 2016, 09:40:57 PM »
Quote from: IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi on August 28, 2016, 09:31:06 PM
Quote
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I just can't see him taking NH and the Maine seat.
And I can't see him losing Louisiana
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Classic Conservative
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,628
« Reply #2 on: September 16, 2016, 01:57:02 PM »
Quote from: Eleven on September 16, 2016, 01:54:53 PM
This is my DON'T PANIC image of the day.

Momentum is not a thing, and despite things getting very close between Obama and Romney in mid-October, Obama cruised safely to victory.


Mid-October this is Mid-September.
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Classic Conservative
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,628
« Reply #3 on: September 20, 2016, 03:29:44 PM »
Maine and Minnesota have now been put on states to watch.
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Classic Conservative
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,628
« Reply #4 on: September 20, 2016, 05:20:56 PM »
Quote from: Left on September 20, 2016, 05:16:10 PM
Quote from: amdcpus on September 20, 2016, 05:13:50 PM
Quote from: heatcharger on September 20, 2016, 05:00:38 PM
The problem is Florida. Why is Trump still favored, and why did his odds go up today? I know, the trend, but Monmouth last polled it a month ago, so at that point, the statute of limitations for a trend should go out the window. It could've been a lot worse if Monmouth conducted the poll last week.

Quote from: bilaps on September 20, 2016, 04:56:05 PM
Also, he just gave Nate Cohn an explanation for adjusting Siena poll to Trump +1. He basicaly says that Siena was D leaning this cycle because their NY polls were strongest for Clinton out of 10 different pollsters.

Silly reasoning. Safe state polling is almost always less accurate than swing states. Are Nate & Co. really basing their 2 point D-house effect on some NY Siena polls? Isn't the methodology of the FL Upshot/Siena poll also completely different?

St Leo University Poll today of Florida had Clinton at +5 when a month ago they had her at +14.

Read the first paragraph of that post and try again.
That's why, it's the poll has a large Democratic bias of like 4 points so 538 put the poll at +2 I think. Which fits in with the NYT Poll
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Classic Conservative
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,628
« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2016, 05:21:00 AM »
Quote from: ProudModerate2 on September 20, 2016, 11:37:03 PM
Why didn't 538 update the system to include the two new Florida polls that were released earlier today (Tue Sept 20th) ?
I can possibly understand that they are unsure to include the St Leo University poll, but why would they not include the Monmouth poll ?
(PS: Both polls are +5 Clinton.)

Monmouth is on 538 as C+4
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Classic Conservative
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,628
« Reply #6 on: September 26, 2016, 08:21:37 AM »
Trumps up with 54% in the NowCast. He has 48% in both polls only and polls plus!
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