Biden vs Trump (user search)
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Author Topic: Biden vs Trump  (Read 1812 times)
Kingpoleon
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Posts: 22,144
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« on: August 05, 2015, 12:57:07 AM »


380; Joseph Biden(D-DE)/Gavin Newsom(D-CA) - 53.1%
158; Donald Trump(R-NY)/Rush Limbaugh(R-IN) - 40.5%

Others: 6.3%
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Kingpoleon
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Posts: 22,144
United States


« Reply #1 on: August 05, 2015, 01:30:01 PM »

Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, and Arizona are the only ones Biden can gain unless he crushes Trump by twenty points. Arkansas, Georgia, and such aren't flexible enough to be flipped.
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Kingpoleon
Atlas Star
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Posts: 22,144
United States


« Reply #2 on: August 05, 2015, 04:00:58 PM »

Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, and Arizona are the only ones Biden can gain unless he crushes Trump by twenty points. Arkansas, Georgia, and such aren't flexible enough to be flipped.
Georgia has a good chance of being flipped. Obama lost Georgia to Romney by an 8 percent margin.

Given that the Hispanic population and turnout will likely be larger in 2016, Biden's support comes disproportionately from racial minorities, and Trump's favorability with Hispanics is roughly 75% negative, I could see Georgia tipping in favor of Biden over Trump.

If we nominated Trump twice, then sure. However, I don't think it's flexible enough. For all the bad stuff we give Trump, I think he would hold Georgia safe. Missouri, Indiana, and Arizona were won by much larger margins, but 2008 proved Georgia is far less flexible than even Montana.
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