Which House Upset Surprise is Most Likely?

[Kingpoleon]

The third or the fifth. Beutler and LoBiondo are very popular, and Hill's district is R+8.

PVI of all districts:
Arkansas's 2nd: R+8
California's 39th: R+5
New Jersey's 2nd: D+1
New Mexico's 2nd: R+5
Washington's 3rd: R+4/2(conflicting accounts on Wikipedia)

LoBiondo looks vulnerable, but here's his recent re election bids:
2014: 61.7% v. 37.0%(Bill Hughes, Jr.: Former federal prosecutor and son of Rep. William Hughes)
2012: 57.7% V. 40.3%(Cassandra Shober: office manager)
2008: 59.1% v. 39.1%(Dave Kurkowski: city councilman of Cape May)

Beutler's last three:
2010*: 53.0% v. 47.0%(Dennis Heck: then state rep.; now U. S. Rep.)
2012: 60.4% v. 39.6%(Jon Haugen: commercial pilot); over performed Romney by 11%
2014: 61.5% v. 38.5%(Bob Dingethal; businessman and former Cantwell aide)
*[Then D+0]

Neither of their opponents are particularly stronger than any previous ones, IMO.