How can Clinton win NC?

[Senator Spark]

[Senator Spark]

She's winning by a wide margin already.

It's better to ask "How can TRUMP win NC?"

But how, exactly? Why is she winning AAs more than Obama, who was an AA male?

[Senator Spark]

How about you just make one thread and keep asking as it goes on?

Yeah, I, too, would like to see the mods sweep Tilden's questions (which are usually just traps for low level "policy" debate anyway) into one megathread or something.

I give it about one week before he asks "When will Clinton drop out?"

She won the Democratic primary fair and square and the FBI primary, she won't drop out now.

[Senator Spark]

Why is she winning AAs more than Obama, who was an AA male?

I mean why will they turnout more for her than Obama, who was African-American.

[Senator Spark]

Why is she winning AAs more than Obama, who was an AA male?

What do you want to bet that this guy has, at some point, lamented "identity politics"?

Mind you, I supported Obama in 2008. *Plot twist*

[Senator Spark]

Why is she winning AAs more than Obama, who was an AA male?

I mean why will they turnout more for her than Obama, who was African-American.

Because they find Donald Trump far more offensive and objectionable than Mitt Romney. Donald Trump is a man who spent months spreading the conspiracy theory that the first African American president in the history of this country was a secret foreigner, and he has never apologized for doing so. That sort of stuff doesn't get forgotten.

True. But Clinton lacks the charisma and oratory skills that Obama had to inspire people and to get them out to vote for him. And if anyone believes she will exceed his turnout in 2008 in Raleigh & Charlotte with favorable conditions for the Democrats (i.e. Recession) they are extremely deluded and misled.

[Senator Spark]

If she holds on to Obama's levels of AA support (or comes very close), and wins over a lot of educated voters (especially in the Research Triangle) she has a very good chance of winning NC.

I think AA turnout will decrease, since either candidate is not that appealing. But you have a valid argument with educated voters, however Trump will need to find a way to offset this.

[Senator Spark]

Why is she winning AAs more than Obama, who was an AA male?

I mean why will they turnout more for her than Obama, who was African-American.

Well, gee, I wonder... who was it that brought up that whole birth certificate "Obama is a Kenyan" deal? Hmm...

Obama is of Kenyan descent. But that was Trump and rightfully so because we have the right to question the personal background of our president.

He wasn't questioning his "personal background." He was attempting to delegitimize the incumbent president by using his racial/ethnic background to question his citizenship.

Okay. If Obama didn't believe that was a valid argument then why did he release his birth certificate? Thanks for the great debates as always Arch.

Thanks. I'm pretty sure we both enjoy them.

Obama released it to spite him and to put the issue to rest among those who actually started to believe Trump. Now, think about it, before Obama, no presidential candidate had his legitimacy questioned on the basis of his race and was asked to release their birth certificate to satisfy the opposition. That alone, sets Trump in such a bad position in the AA community that I can envision him doing just as bad, if not worse, than McCain and/or Romney with AA voters.

I believe he can recover because of the aforementioned point about opportunity in these communities. They want to have an equal chance as everyone else and strive to become successful on their own. They cannot achieve that under a Democratic president. He certainly has the potential to perform better than either McCain or Romney because he isn't a typical Republican politician and I think he'll get no lower than 10%.

[Senator Spark]

Why is she winning AAs more than Obama, who was an AA male?

I mean why will they turnout more for her than Obama, who was African-American.

Well, gee, I wonder... who was it that brought up that whole birth certificate "Obama is a Kenyan" deal? Hmm...

Obama is of Kenyan descent. But that was Trump and rightfully so because we have the right to question the personal background of our president.

He wasn't questioning his "personal background." He was attempting to delegitimize the incumbent president by using his racial/ethnic background to question his citizenship.

Okay. If Obama didn't believe that was a valid argument then why did he release his birth certificate? Thanks for the great debates as always Arch.

Thanks. I'm pretty sure we both enjoy them.

Obama released it to spite him and to put the issue to rest among those who actually started to believe Trump. Now, think about it, before Obama, no presidential candidate had his legitimacy questioned on the basis of his race and was asked to release their birth certificate to satisfy the opposition. That alone, sets Trump in such a bad position in the AA community that I can envision him doing just as bad, if not worse, than McCain and/or Romney with AA voters.

Obama didn't just do that, he humiliated Trump to his face later in the week at the Correspondents' Dinner, and then ordered the raid that killed Bin Laden the next night and in doing so made Trump look even more small and petty in comparison.

That was an amazing few days.

The past is irrelevant and is not about Obama & Trump's feuds. This election is about the future, and all that matter now is that Obama is a lame duck president and has struggled to provide leadership for the country.

[Senator Spark]

His 50%+ approval rating begs to differ.

True. But have you seen the polls about the direction of the country?

[Senator Spark]

Why is she winning AAs more than Obama, who was an AA male?

I mean why will they turnout more for her than Obama, who was African-American.

Well, gee, I wonder... who was it that brought up that whole birth certificate "Obama is a Kenyan" deal? Hmm...

Obama is of Kenyan descent. But that was Trump and rightfully so because we have the right to question the personal background of our president.

He wasn't questioning his "personal background." He was attempting to delegitimize the incumbent president by using his racial/ethnic background to question his citizenship.

Okay. If Obama didn't believe that was a valid argument then why did he release his birth certificate? Thanks for the great debates as always Arch.

Thanks. I'm pretty sure we both enjoy them.

Obama released it to spite him and to put the issue to rest among those who actually started to believe Trump. Now, think about it, before Obama, no presidential candidate had his legitimacy questioned on the basis of his race and was asked to release their birth certificate to satisfy the opposition. That alone, sets Trump in such a bad position in the AA community that I can envision him doing just as bad, if not worse, than McCain and/or Romney with AA voters.

Obama didn't just do that, he humiliated Trump to his face later in the week at the Correspondents' Dinner, and then ordered the raid that killed Bin Laden the next night and in doing so made Trump look even more small and petty in comparison.

That was an amazing few days.

The past is irrelevant and is not about Obama & Trump's feuds. This election is about the future, and all that matter now is that Obama is a lame duck president and has struggled to provide leadership for the country.

He is no lame duck. After November, sure, but before then, no. He has made a significant and positive impact for the most part of these last 8 years, ranging from the normalization of foreign relations with Cuba to overseeing recovery from one of the worst economic disasters in American history to protecting our right to have fair access to internet services, allowing us to have debates such as these.

History matters because, in the context of how the AA community will view and vote in a Trump v Clinton election, it was relatively recent, and they will punish him accordingly at the polls. Not that Hillary isn't appreciated by the community either. It's just that he has a lot more than favorable view of one candidate going against him. This is without factoring in all the other inflammatory rhetoric he's been using and the disastrous campaign management.

The AA community has to make a choice on who they want to give them the best chance to succeed. Will they dwell on the past or look toward a brighter future? Also history does matter, however, it can not dictate nor predict the future accurately. I have to give Obama credit for making us bounce back from the recession but that's about all I give him credit for. The rhetoric has been apart of his campaign for as long as I can remember but that is not likely to change although it can be altered. I think he would be better off staying on message instead of creating disputes. The Cuban Thaw has mixed criticisms but I'm sure Florida will not react to kindly to that.

[Senator Spark]

Why is she winning AAs more than Obama, who was an AA male?

I mean why will they turnout more for her than Obama, who was African-American.

Well, gee, I wonder... who was it that brought up that whole birth certificate "Obama is a Kenyan" deal? Hmm...

Obama is of Kenyan descent. But that was Trump and rightfully so because we have the right to question the personal background of our president.

He wasn't questioning his "personal background." He was attempting to delegitimize the incumbent president by using his racial/ethnic background to question his citizenship.

Okay. If Obama didn't believe that was a valid argument then why did he release his birth certificate? Thanks for the great debates as always Arch.

Thanks. I'm pretty sure we both enjoy them.

Obama released it to spite him and to put the issue to rest among those who actually started to believe Trump. Now, think about it, before Obama, no presidential candidate had his legitimacy questioned on the basis of his race and was asked to release their birth certificate to satisfy the opposition. That alone, sets Trump in such a bad position in the AA community that I can envision him doing just as bad, if not worse, than McCain and/or Romney with AA voters.

Obama didn't just do that, he humiliated Trump to his face later in the week at the Correspondents' Dinner, and then ordered the raid that killed Bin Laden the next night and in doing so made Trump look even more small and petty in comparison.

That was an amazing few days.

The past is irrelevant and is not about Obama & Trump's feuds. This election is about the future, and all that matter now is that Obama is a lame duck president and has struggled to provide leadership for the country.

He is no lame duck. After November, sure, but before then, no. He has made a significant and positive impact for the most part of these last 8 years, ranging from the normalization of foreign relations with Cuba to overseeing recovery from one of the worst economic disasters in American history to protecting our right to have fair access to internet services, allowing us to have debates such as these.

History matters because, in the context of how the AA community will view and vote in a Trump v Clinton election, it was relatively recent, and they will punish him accordingly at the polls. Not that Hillary isn't appreciated by the community either. It's just that he has a lot more than favorable view of one candidate going against him. This is without factoring in all the other inflammatory rhetoric he's been using and the disastrous campaign management.

The AA community has to make a choice on who they want to give them the best chance to succeed. Will they dwell on the past or look toward a brighter future? Also history does matter, however, it can not dictate nor predict the future accurately. I have to give Obama credit for making us bounce back from the recession but that's about all I give him credit for. The rhetoric has been apart of his campaign for as long as I can remember but that is not likely to change although it can be altered. I think he would be better off staying on message instead of creating disputes. The Cuban Thaw has mixed criticisms but I'm sure Florida will not react to kindly to that.

If they didn't go for Bernie on the same basis, they will certainly not go for Trump. From my understanding, the AA community values commitment and history of treatment over promises because the latter is tangible and can be banked on for the future more securely.

Trump had the potential to sell a really good message, but he's banking on soft white nationalism to push it and with no substantive development at that. Unfortunately, that is not a winning strategy in the contemporary U.S., much less the AA community.

They will eventually be tired of being let down with the "history of treatment" that they receive. Welfare reforms will not get them back to work. Creating new jobs to provide for them will. Trump does not need to win the AA vote, only win enough of it while keeping white turnout high in order to succeed.

[Senator Spark]

His 50%+ approval rating begs to differ.

True. But have you seen the polls about the direction of the country?

Maybe, but something my years of observing has taught me, it's clear that despite a general irritation and dissatisfaction, the fact that the President has very good approvals for this point in his term, the Democrats are more popular than the GOP and are leading the generic ballots... this isn't a 2008-like change election. They aren't going to change horses just 'cause reasons.

That irritation and dissatisfaction may just be enough to propel the GOP into the White House.

[Senator Spark]

His 50%+ approval rating begs to differ.

True. But have you seen the polls about the direction of the country?

Maybe, but something my years of observing has taught me, it's clear that despite a general irritation and dissatisfaction, the fact that the President has very good approvals for this point in his term, the Democrats are more popular than the GOP and are leading the generic ballots... this isn't a 2008-like change election. They aren't going to change horses just 'cause reasons.
[/quote

That irritation and dissatisfaction may just be enough to propel to GOP into the White House.

Bet you it won't.

Fair enough. It's been a central component of this cycle.