A Polling Free-Fall Among Blacks (just 2% support Bush) (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 28, 2024, 01:25:28 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  U.S. General Discussion (Moderators: The Dowager Mod, Chancellor Tanterterg)
  A Polling Free-Fall Among Blacks (just 2% support Bush) (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: A Polling Free-Fall Among Blacks (just 2% support Bush)  (Read 2016 times)
Joe Republic
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,151
Ukraine


« on: October 20, 2005, 07:49:03 PM »

To think of this intuitively, if you want to know the true probability of flipping a coin (almost 50/50) you have to get a really big sample to determine that it actually is 50/50. - Even with a sample of 1000 about 1/3 of your samples will be out by 3% (ie 515 to 485 or more)

By contrast, You need to flip very few coins to determine that coins usually land on one of their faces, and very rarely stand up on their edge after you flip them...

I saw a D-CA avatar and a post about coin flipping... I was about to start throwing things.
Logged
Joe Republic
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,151
Ukraine


« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2005, 09:40:37 PM »

To think of this intuitively, if you want to know the true probability of flipping a coin (almost 50/50) you have to get a really big sample to determine that it actually is 50/50. - Even with a sample of 1000 about 1/3 of your samples will be out by 3% (ie 515 to 485 or more)

By contrast, You need to flip very few coins to determine that coins usually land on one of their faces, and very rarely stand up on their edge after you flip them...

I saw a D-CA avatar and a post about coin flipping... I was about to start throwing things.

Yeah, but I can say with 100% confidence you would have missed the poster.

Perhaps, but is that statistically significant?
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.016 seconds with 10 queries.