Has Trump essentially won the Republican nomination?

[SillyAmerican]

I have no reason to believe that almost every PA uncommitted delegate will be Cruz/anti-Trump, just like they have been elsewhere.  I bet most of those "I will vote for the winner of my district" delegates are just saying that, but are really anti-Trump.  And, Trump supporters would be the type to vote for Trump and then ignore the delegate stuff.

I agree with you, but if Trump gets to 1200 pledged delegate or so it will be hard for them to take that position. The way to stop Trump is to make sure he is below something like 1150.  That means Trump must be beating in IN and be beaten in significant number of CD in CA.  There is no way around this fact.

Agreed. And while I think it's possible that Trump doesn't get to 1237, I believe he will be very, very close -- probably within 50 or 60 votes. I actually find myself hoping he somehow does get to 1237, if for no other reason than to avoid the turmoil that will result if multiple rounds of balloting result in someone other than Trump being nominated.

[SillyAmerican]

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His only win was New York. That's the worst a frontrunner has ever done. Given this late into the process, Trump is irreparably damaged.

So the same can be said about Hillary, right? This statement either applies to both or applies to neither, unless you can explain the difference. In any event, I don't think we share the same view of what constitutes irreparable damage.

[SillyAmerican]

He's the prohibitive favorite, yes, but he'd be a fool if he actually thinks he can act like one, rather than just say it. The math could still work against him, even if he wins in Indiana. Cruz isn't going to give up until Trump clears 1237, and probably not even then. This is a case where I'd seriously say that it's not over until its over.

I'm inclined to agree. This'll go to the convention, but I don't think the balloting goes beyond the first round, with Trump being selected.