Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Omega21]

   The instructions on the government website say the postal ballots can be submitted to a precinct on election day, so that would be that 200k figure mentioned, but how do we know they have been counted? I would think they would be kept separate and added to the ballots that came by mail. Just speculating, but I think that's what happens in California.

,

Österreich (Briefwahl), kumuliertes Ergebnis (117 von 117 Gebieten), vorläufiges Endergebnis inklusive Briefwahlstimmen

Endergebnis inklusive Briefwahlstimmen

I think this means Including Absentee votes, but my German is not that good so i would check with Tender.

[Omega21]

Here is the awnser from Kurier


Der Wahlkoordinator des Innenministeriums, Robert Stein, bei seiner Lieblingsbeschäftigung: Er erläuterte in der Hofburg im Gespräch mit dem KURIER das Zahlenwerk der spannenden Entscheidung, die uns morgen erwartet: Insgesamt waren 885.000 Wahlkarten beantragt. Es seien aber nur noch 740.000 auszuzählen, diese Differenz entstehe entweder in den Wahllokalen oder es haben sich manche noch überlegt, doch nicht zu wählen. Rund 3 bis 4 Prozent seien bei jeder Wahl wegen Nichtigkeit abzuziehen, weil zum Beispiel eine Unterschrift fehlt, oder ähnliches. Es gehe also noch um rund 700.000 Wahlkarten netto, bei einem Unterschied von derzeit 144.000 Stimmen zwischen Hofer und Van der Bellen.

So tomorrow 700k votes will be counted. Hofer is in lead for 144k votes so Vdb needs to make this up somehow or Hofer will be the winner.

[Omega21]

Here is the awnser from Kurier


Der Wahlkoordinator des Innenministeriums, Robert Stein, bei seiner Lieblingsbeschäftigung: Er erläuterte in der Hofburg im Gespräch mit dem KURIER das Zahlenwerk der spannenden Entscheidung, die uns morgen erwartet: Insgesamt waren 885.000 Wahlkarten beantragt. Es seien aber nur noch 740.000 auszuzählen, diese Differenz entstehe entweder in den Wahllokalen oder es haben sich manche noch überlegt, doch nicht zu wählen. Rund 3 bis 4 Prozent seien bei jeder Wahl wegen Nichtigkeit abzuziehen, weil zum Beispiel eine Unterschrift fehlt, oder ähnliches. Es gehe also noch um rund 700.000 Wahlkarten netto, bei einem Unterschied von derzeit 144.000 Stimmen zwischen Hofer und Van der Bellen.

So tomorrow 700k votes will be counted. Hofer is in lead for 144k votes so Vdb needs to make this up somehow or Hofer will be the winner.

Thanks for this!

By their numbers it looks like VdB needs ~61% to win

Thats right, this could help you also:

Davon entfielen auf die Wahlwerberin und die einzelnen Wahlwerber
Dr. Irmgard Griss   117.323   21,9 %
Ing. Norbert Hofer   136.832   25,6 %
Rudolf Hundstorfer   64.349   12,0 %
Dr. Andreas Khol   57.203   10,7 %
Ing. Richard Lugner   9.025   1,7 %
Dr. Alexander Van der Bellen   150.042   28,1 %

These are the postal votes in first round.

Khol is OVP center, so some of his votes will go to Hofer, Griss is also center-left so some of her votes will also go to Hofer, but she endorsed Vdb so 70+% of her vote goes to Vdb.

Lugners 99% of the vote will go to Hofer and almost all of Rudolf Spo votes will go to Vdb.

Its just a question of how much Hofer gets from Griss-Khol and how many FPO voters in the 2nd round voted via post.

[Omega21]

The current state of electoral card counting. 376,623 ballots - or about half - are now counted:

Van der Bellen: 60.7%

Hofer: 39.3%

Vdb needs 60.4

You can flow the count on oe24

[Omega21]

I would ask for the Left Lefties on the forum to stop calling Hofer a fascist, please give me any kind of proof and then we will share the same opinion.

I didnt like Vdb but the only good candidate is the one which is elected by the people, in this case it is Vdb.

People need to respect any candidate, Hofer has 49.6% of Austrian votes and you can not call half of your country fascists, especially since Hofer pushes for direct democracy and has never been linked to any Far-Right groups, past or present.

[Omega21]

Do the people in this thread calling Hofer a "fascist" seriously believe that Hofer wants to abolish democracy? As far as i know that's a prerequisite of fascism.

Nah, it's just a buzzword.

Anyway, I imagine there are many people who now voted for the FPÖ for the first time. The mental "threshold" for them to do so in the next parliamentary election might be substantially lower than before (especially if VdB turns out to be a terrible anti-democrat). That's good.

I'm surprised you seem to support FPÖ considering there are a lot of antisemite tendancies in this party

Not really.

Spo has many prominent Muslim Antisemitic members, look it up. Tender talked about it if i recall correctly.

Also, there are some High ranking SPO members from the past who were Nazis back in the day.

Strache only once posted a sort of Antisemitic photo on his page, which really dissapointed me in him.

[Omega21]

Considering the attitudes of European Christians, European Muslims are the least of the problems for the European Jews

If you were talking about Eastern European Christians, you were right.

Man this offends me, before WW2 my city had a sizeable Jewish population and you can thank the NDH (Croatian Nazi puppet state) for the extermination of Jews and my grandparents (who were Christian orthodox) from my city.

I live in the Serbian part of Bosnia btw.

[Omega21]

Are there any elections before 2018?

[Omega21]

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Van-der-Bellen-Kein-Kanzler-Strache/236985180

Vdb officially (as president) confirms he would not swear in a FPO goverment.

2017/2018 Should be a fun year for Austria..

[Omega21]

The Mayoral election makes me think that there actually is corruption to some extent, wouldnt have thought Austria had corruption at all xD.. Although dont really think half a million votes are invalid, probably the FPO are exaggerating.

Here where I live, elections are fixed regularily with the Bulgarian train or by paying people 25-50Euros for a vote, very sad..


Sometimes even dead people vote, lol..

[Omega21]

The Mayoral election makes me think that there actually is corruption to some extent, wouldnt have thought Austria had corruption at all xD.. Although dont really think half a million votes are invalid, probably the FPO are exaggerating.

Here where I live, elections are fixed regularily with the Bulgarian train or by paying people 25-50Euros for a vote, very sad..


Sometimes even dead people vote, lol..

Well, the stuff you have in Bulgaria is certainly not happening here ...

The FPÖ's charge is more directed at the early pre-selection of postal votes on Sunday, so that the Monday vote count is quicker for election workers.

But: even all the FPÖ's members in the election commissions signed that everything was OK and done business as usual when the postal ballots were pre-selected.

Im not from Bulgaria, but the system thats used to steal votes is Bulgarian..
 
I live in Bosnia...

Yeah I thnk its like 95-5 that the vote will stick, maybe a few districts get to vote again but dont think it can change 30k votes..

At least we have something entertaining for the next month, seeing as the rest of the year will be a drought in terms of elections..

[Omega21]

The absolute worst-case for the VdB camp would be if the CC declares the runoff illegal, orders a re-vote and temporarily suspends postal voting (except for Austrians abroad) until SPÖVP fixes the election law to make it 100% accurate ...

What are the chances of this happening, realistically...

[Omega21]

Another major Austrian constitutional expert says the FPÖ's court challenge might succeed to the fullest extent (= runoff being declared illegal and a re-vote is set):

http://derstandard.at/2000038788281/Experte-sieht-gewichtige-Argumente-fuer-blaue-Anfechtung

If this happens, would there be another Campaign before the 2nd runoff and how soon could it be held after the verdict?

[Omega21]

Another major Austrian constitutional expert says the FPÖ's court challenge might succeed to the fullest extent (= runoff being declared illegal and a re-vote is set):

http://derstandard.at/2000038788281/Experte-sieht-gewichtige-Argumente-fuer-blaue-Anfechtung

Can government replaces those judges who dare to reverse popular will?

Well the judges would be nothing but right to do it, the irregularities were very small and even though they were not legal, they dont alter the result (Vdb would still win), but in any case the judge makes a decision according to the law, and opening ballots earlier (which is one of the irregularities) is illegal.

[Omega21]

The absolute worst-case for the VdB camp would be if the CC declares the runoff illegal, orders a re-vote and temporarily suspends postal voting (except for Austrians abroad) until SPÖVP fixes the election law to make it 100% accurate ...

What are the chances of this happening, realistically...

Close to 0%.

Well, after the Vienna-02 ruling yesterday, that's probably up to a 20-40% chance now ...

I think people like you who vote by Mail would just go out and vote in person, if the absence vote was suspended of course. Still think Vdb wouldnt lose a lot of votes, especially since his Voters are motived more because the other candidate is a Right-wing FPO member.

Meanwhile I cant understand how the FPO cant manage to win more than 30% of Wien, im sure if they did some ads and some coverage on a few articles and some talking points such as work for young people, people would get pretty annoyed with the SPO/Green in Wien..

Such as this: http://www.krone.at/Oesterreich/Schon_jeder_dritte_junge_Wiener_hat_keine_Arbeit!-Trotz_Versprechungen-Story-515244

According to this 31% of Men under 25 in Wien are unemployed, and 12% of Women.

(And i assume as Krone is Austrias best selling newspaper, that this likely isnt a false fact)

If spun correctly this could lead to huge gains for the Right, just not sure how they are so incompetent on doing that as they have the Refugee crisis, Imigrant criminals and Unemployment in Wien working for them, and the Left really has no good awnser for this.

Coupled with the Rapes that happen weekly, a 10 year old boy being the latest victim, not sure how they are not getting much more, as I presume Austrians dont like rape and murder by hardened criminals who were not properly checked when coming in.



Anyway, looking forward to the repeat election if it happens, even though Vdb will win again most likely, it will still be something to pass the time.

[Omega21]

I would love to see FPO deal with the migration issues, cant deny that they are the best at that, at least normal people who dont think illegal migrants should get more then Austrian workers who worked their  whole life for their system.


This is the reason I would like them to be in power for 4-6 years, set up a few things against this kind of bullsh**t and then it can be back to SPO, assuming they have no power to give out free money to random people jumping the fence..


Anyway Tender, are you expecting the same result if there is another runoff or do you expect a smaller/bigger difference, for Hofer or Vdb?

[Omega21]

According to OGM's new poll of Austrian politicians, Norbert Hofer has a 48-43 favorable rating (which is extremely good for an FPÖ-politician). Even FPÖ-leader Strache only manages a 41-49 rating. Since their May poll, Hofer even gained 3% ...

Other ratings:

77-21 (outgoing) President Heinz Fischer
60-32 Sebastian Kurz (Foreign and Integration Minister, ÖVP)
48-32 Christian Kern (Chancellor, SPÖ)
49-42 Reinhold Mitterlehner (Vice-Chancellor, ÖVP)
41-46 Eva Glawischnig (Green Party leader)
32-37 Matthias Strolz (NEOS leader)

President-elect Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens) was not asked, because he's not a politician in office yet. Still stupid though not to ask about his numbers, it would be nice to have comparable figures with Hofer.



http://www.ogm.at/inhalt/2016/06/innenpolitik-vertrauensindex/APA-OGM-Vertrauensindex_BundespolitikerInnen-Juni-2016.pdf

My thought at least is if the CC declares the runoff illegal that a small number of people could vote for Hofer next time as the "protector" of Democracy and Law. His campaign was centered around protecting this and being backed by a CC verdict coupled with him calling Vdb out as a Political Elite member could make some people think that there really was some tampering after all, more than there was actually.

Or do you think it wont have any impact?

[Omega21]

Or do you think it wont have any impact?

I think the additional TV debates and campaign talk (& possible gaffes) will have more of an impact than the CC ruling itself. A new campaign will get new dynamics again, but Austria would be so polarized again that another close result is likely ...

Looking forward to seeing this Election first hand, as Im moving to Wien on the 30th of Sept, who knew that there would be some political fun before 2017 after all...

If Hofer continues moving to the Center a bit more he could gain some more votes without losing the Right, as the only alternative is a Green candidate, he would have far more sucess if FPO was not as contraversial as it is.

[Omega21]

Or do you think it wont have any impact?

I think the additional TV debates and campaign talk (& possible gaffes) will have more of an impact than the CC ruling itself. A new campaign will get new dynamics again, but Austria would be so polarized again that another close result is likely ...

Looking forward to seeing this Election first hand, as Im moving to Wien on the 30th of Sept, who knew that there would be some political fun before 2017 after all...

If Hofer continues moving to the Center a bit more he could gain some more votes without losing the Right, as the only alternative is a Green candidate, he would have far more sucess if FPO was not as contraversial as it is.

Cool. What for ? Studying ?

Could Hofer replace Strache?

The media speculated about it, but no.

Yeah, I applied to WU Wien, I will be losing one year though because of German, since I only have B1 but B2 is needed..

Also dont think Hofer will replace Strache, even though I think the party would make more gains with him as he is softer and really not contraversial at all.

[Omega21]

Thanks Tender, will do my best

And now to a off topic question. How hard would it be to implement a law where if you get arrested for selling Drugs, you lose Asylum rights and get deported after your sentance, and im not talking about people from war-torn countries, im talking about Algerians and so on, since it would be mad to deport someone to a War zone.

And which parties would never sign such a law?

Im asking because of this: http://m.oe24.at/oesterreich/chronik/Drogen-Hotspots-99-Verhaftungen-seit-1-Juni/239752048

80%(102 men) of all arrests at a drug hotspot are African, and in total 105 of the arrested have Asylum status.

[Omega21]

I put the probability of a nation-wide revote at 0.1%.

I think its much higher than that..

[Omega21]

What in the living hell is this

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/chronik/Fluechtling-missbraucht-Zwolfjaehrige/240516617

A man god 20 months of Jail for abusing a child, what kind of sick justice system is this?

Could someone explain to me why he cant be sentenced to a correct sentance, fitting the crime.

[Omega21]

Any news on the hearings? Couldnt find anything new..


Do you expect FPO to rise even more because I think the loss of the Presidential election coupled with them still being in the oppostion, they always have the goverment to blame for everything starting from Monthly handouts to Children being raped almost weekly now..


Could really make some people vote for them as nothing is more important to people than Security, especially for families.

This post made me think about it: http://www.krone.at/Nachrichten/13-Jaehrige_missbraucht_Bad_sperrt_Fluechtlinge_aus-No_entry-Story-516573

Plus, look at the comments:

Rot und Grün wer schützt unsere Kinder vor jenen die ihr gerufen habt, denkt ihr überhaupt darüber nach!

6200 likes 50 dislikes

Seems like a daily occurence now..

[Omega21]

Chancellor Christian Kern was officially elected SPÖ-leader today with 97% of the delegates at their convention in Vienna:



In his 90-minute "welcome" speech to the delegates he talked about how he'll work to revitalise the SPÖ, that he wants to continue the SPÖVP coalition until 2018, how the SPÖ should try to win back voters who switched over to the FPÖ, that the SPÖ should prevent the FPÖ from taking power at the federal level, but to work with them on the local/state level. He called the FPÖ an "incompetent party" that fu**ed things up whenever they were in power, which is the reason why he does not want the SPÖ to enter a coalition with them on the national level. He also talked about renewable energy, climate change etc. and how to create more jobs in the next years and that the SPÖ is the party "most competent" when it comes to the economy (a hit directed at the ÖVP).

Kern got standing ovations from the delegates after his speech.

http://derstandard.at/2000039817243/Christian-Kern-mit-viel-Jubel-zum-SPOe-Parteichef-gewaehlt

Isnt the unemployment rising across Austria, especially in Wien? xd

Not to mention the massive debt accumulation which has risen 20% from 68 to 88% of Gdp since 2008 ..

[Omega21]

Breaking News:

The Constitutional Court will release their ruling on the FPÖ's presidential runoff-challenge tomorrow, starting at 11:30am local time.

Don't know if the "Presse" newspaper has any insider information, but they are saying "everything points to the Court ordering a re-vote":

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/5040762/Urteil-uber-die-Stichwahl-faellt-morgen

I would have thought that such a swift decision process by the Court would actually benefit the VdB camp ...

Nah, they are really tough.

As soon as they saw sloppiness in at least one District i think they leaned to a re-vote..

Especially because a re-vote is not expensive (16 mil is pocket change compared to what the Hand holding couple of Red-Green give out monthly to Economic migrants), and cant be the wrong decision as people will vote same as before..