Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[heatcharger]

The Pub will win by 10 points. The dem nominee should then run for some statewide offices in KS, he would have a non negligible chance to win.

I'm hoping it's somewhere closer to Brownback's 6.6% win 2014.

Brownback only won by 3.8% actually. If Republicans only held this seat by single-digits, that would be a huge scare to Republicans for the reasons you mentioned, but here's my prediction:

Estes (R) 54%
Thompson (D) 42%
Rockhold (L) 4%

Brownback might be completely toxic in the state, but it's only good enough to elect better Republicans, not Democrats, at least not yet.

[heatcharger]

Cook just moved this race from Likely R to Lean R:

@jonshorman
>> TRUMP has recorded call for Estes, KS Republican national committeeman Mark Kahrs tells me #ksleg #KS04

Bringing out the big guns.

Here's the transcript of that robocall:



He really said "big league"...

[heatcharger]

Romney won this district by only 8%...I think the final margin will be around there

No... maybe you're thinking of KS-03 where Romney won by 9. This district went from 61-36 Romney to 60-33 Trump.

[heatcharger]

Current tally with some early vote from Sedgwick and Butler:

Thompson (D) - 14,553 - 60.9%
Estes (R) - 8,973 - 37.5%
Rockhold (L) - 341 - 1.4%

I kinda thought the Libertarian would have a better showing.

[heatcharger]

It could be that the Democrats cannibalized most of their votes through early voting, but if that's not the case, Estes could be in trouble. Again, though, these are hypotheticals. We'll know for sure soon enough.

Yeah, I expect the Election Day returns to come crashing down on Thompson, but this is nice to see so far.

[heatcharger]

Not to rain on all the Democrats' hopes here, but didn't Trump get massacred in the early vote in Florida, North Carolina, st al, only to slaughter Clinton even worse in Election Day voting?

Yes. I expect Estes to dominate the ED vote big time, but I am now quite curious about the what the final margin will end up being. Looks like a fair amount of Republicans crossed over.

[heatcharger]

I bet the DCCC regrets not investing heavily in this race.

Thompson localized the race at made it more of a referendum on Brownback than on Trump or Congressional Republicans. I don't think ties to the national party would've helped all that much.

[heatcharger]

Kingman just came in heavily for Estes. 71-27 with 17 of 28 precincts reported. Trump won this county 76-18.

[heatcharger]

Looks like Thompson is overperforming by a massive amount in Sedgwick (Wichita)... and just a little bit everywhere else. There is just way too much vote outstanding here for him to pull this off.

[heatcharger]

Thompson seems to running way, way ahead of Clinton and Davis in suburban Wichita (Sedgwick) and only slightly so in the rural precincts.

[heatcharger]

This could've been less of a nail-biter if the DNC actually funded money for Thompson's campaign.

I guarantee you even if Thompson loses by a razor-thin margin they'll say "well, looks like populism failed here."

Dude, look at the numbers coming from the rural precincts. Estes is doing just fine out there.

[heatcharger]

51-48 Thompson... his margin is down to ~1,600. Still not much out of Sedgwick though. Butler is looking pretty loyal to Estes.

[heatcharger]

Still nothing out of Stafford, Pratt, Harper, Elk, Greenwood, and Chautauqua counties. They make up ~5% of the vote.

Edit: Chautauqua comes in at 79-20 Estes with 5 out of 15 reporting.

[heatcharger]

Local news:

https://twitter.com/KWCH12/status/851970046876426240

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...

[heatcharger]

I feel like I'm two refreshes away from a 1,000 vote Estes lead.

Yup... Thompson's lead has been whittled down to 265 votes.

[heatcharger]

And Estes is in the lead. Let's hope Thompson keeps this in single-digits.

[heatcharger]

Well thanks Democrats for blowing a shining opportunity.

Lol you gotta be kidding me... this was not a shining opportunity. Let's not act like this is fertile territory for Democrats. The fact that this is even somewhat close is reflective of Trump but mostly Brownback's failures.

Well thanks Democrats for blowing a shining opportunity.

The fact that it came so close shows that a bigger push (and more money, especially) could've made the difference. That's the lesson to take from this, and if the DCCC comes back tomorrow and says "well, the populist message failed here, let's keep focusing on suburban districts" then they'll continue to lose golden opportunities like this one.

Again... pay attention to where Thompson is outperforming Clinton and Davis, and to where he's not.

[heatcharger]

Well thanks Democrats for blowing a shining opportunity.

Lol you gotta be kidding me... this was not a shining opportunity. Let's not act like this is fertile territory for Democrats. The fact that this is even somewhat close is reflective of Trump but mostly Brownback.

It was surprisingly competitive and the DNC pretty much ignored the race. This seat is needed for Democrats.

It would've been nice to have but it's not needed. There are dozens upon dozens of districts that are more likely to flip than this one. Plus, many of you are highly overrating how much of a difference a few dollars from the DCCC would've made.

[heatcharger]

The fact that it came so close shows that a bigger push (and more money, especially) could've made the difference. That's the lesson to take from this, and if the DCCC comes back tomorrow and says "well, the populist message failed here, let's keep focusing on suburban districts" then they'll continue to lose golden opportunities like this one.

Except the parts of the district where Thompson seems to have done relatively well in are precisely the urban/suburban parts of the district, not the rural parts.

Rural = ultra-safe Trump/GOP territory.

In plenty of other rural counties outside of Sedgwick, Thompson did better than Hillary in 2016.

Not an accomplishment at all lol... look at where did better than Davis in 2014 or Obama in 2012. When compared to those results, it's not all that impressive. The places where he looks to be doing much better is Wichita, which is more reason for optimism.

[heatcharger]

Will anybody be fired at the DNC this time?

Perez already fired a bunch of people a while ago. As more vote comes in, it's looking less like a nail-biter and more like a huge Republican underperformance. Save your pitchforks for something else.

[heatcharger]

Well Estes' margin just narrowed to 5.7% with 88% reporting. Appears the Election Day vote in Sedgwick was decisively more Democratic than the ED vote elsewhere.

[heatcharger]

✓ Estes (R) - 57,954 - 52.0%
Thompson (D) - 51,494 - 46.2%
Rockhold (L) 1,911 - 1.7%

94% reporting (580 of 620 precincts)

What a pathetic showing by the Libertarian. I expected them to peel off more disaffected Republicans.

[heatcharger]

✓ Estes (R) - 57,954 - 52.0%
Thompson (D) - 51,494 - 46.2%
Rockhold (L) 1,911 - 1.7%

94% reporting (580 of 620 precincts)

What a pathetic showing by the Libertarian. I expected them to peel off more disaffected Republicans.

Disaffected Republicans just end up not voting in these types of elections.

Well, the Libertarian candidates got >4% in both the Senate and Gubernatorial races here in 2014. Alas, turnout was pretty bad in this race, so you're probably right.

[heatcharger]

Btw, am I crazy for thinking that Democrats have a shot at the gubernatorial race here in 2018?

Probably not, and I would like to see Thompson run for that race as well. KS-04 was 6 points to the right of the state as a whole in 2016, and it looks like that's about the margin he's gonna lose by.

[heatcharger]

Estes just padded his lead by a lot:

✓ Estes (R) - 60,945 - 53.3%
Thompson (D) - 51,467 - 45.0% (how did his vote total go down???)
Rockhold (L) 1,971 - 1.7%

99% reporting (619 of 620 precincts)