Canadian by-elections, 2013

[cp]

I actually took more comfort from your analysis than the polls this morning.

Earl always does a sensational analysis. Hopefully he'll get picked up by a media outlet and get paid for it or something.

Here, here!

[cp]

Lol. My mistake!

[cp]

Today's the day!

So where/when can we expect to get results? Can someone link to the elections.ca site (assuming they have something like a live feed)? Which news networks will be providing up-to-date online coverage?

[cp]

Freeland's opening up a real lead now.

Random question: what was the last time the Tories lost a previously-held seat in a by-election in Western Canada?

[cp]

Freeland's opening up a real lead now.

Random question: what was the last time the Tories lost a previously-held seat in a by-election in Western Canada?

1998. Liberal gain over Reform in Port-Moody-Coquiltam.

He said TORY. That would be 1989 with the election of Deborah Gray!

Pardon my imprecision. I meant any of the Reform/Alliance/Conservative parties. Seems like a rather more impressive feat now, given the historical record.

[cp]

Freeland's opening up a real lead now.

Random question: what was the last time the Tories lost a previously-held seat in a by-election in Western Canada?

1998. Liberal gain over Reform in Port-Moody-Coquiltam.

He said TORY. That would be 1989 with the election of Deborah Gray!

That's a Reform gain over PC, I doubt that counts. Else, we have in 1987, the NDP gain over PC in Yukon, but someone can argue than Yukon isn't Western.

Which bring us in Prince Albert, in 1979, in the by-election following the death of former PM Diefenbaker. It was an NDP gain. But it's using a very restrictive definition.

And for a Liberal win, you have to back to 1938. And the riding? Brandon!

No way! That's serendipity for you.

Not that BS is in the bag, of course. The Liberal's lead has tightened a bit in the last few polls. Could be a nail biter.

[cp]

I think the Liberals have regained their position as the predominant non-Conservative party.

Indeed. Seems the NDP is still retaining a lot of the old BQ support though.

Eh, I think that's a bit premature. There's too many local dynamics at play in these races to infer any kind of broader shift. Libs are certainly in the game in the west in a way they weren't in 2011, but the NDP is still alive and well all over.