https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/final-results-for-florida-state-senate-district-37-race-expected-thursday/2320422/I know this has already been posted, but this needs some more analysis.
The GOP flipped a seat that voted for Clinton by 2022. While Trump undoubtably did better in this district this year, this is a Murphy-Nelson district that in 2018 voted for every statewide Democrat by double digits. The GOP likely employed some tactics that have been effective for them in other races: ensuring a third party left wing candidate on the ballot.
Regardless, Democrats hoped to pickup 2 seats this cycle. Instead, they lost one, putting them several cycles back in their hopes to retake a chamber in an alleged "swing" state that they have not held since 1994.
In 2022, both the GOP and Democrats will have several offensive targets. In a Democratic midterm though, I would rather be the GOP. I will do an in depth analysis once more precinct data is present. The Democrats best chance at taking a seat is likely District 8, based around Gainesville where the incumbent is term-limited. The GOP has several prime targets, including Janet Cruz in Tampa Bay and Annette Taddeo, who represents a Hispanic seat in Miami that was only a Clinton +12 seat.
Stay tuned for more info, but the GOP could take a supermajority in both Florida chambers by 2022/2024, a truly stunning feat and a testament that good candidate recruitment, solid messaging, and a strong state party can do amazing things. The GOP is 2 seats away from a supermajority in the State House and 2-3 away in the State Senate.
