538: The GOP’s Chances Of Holding The Senate Are Following Trump Downhill (user search)
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  538: The GOP’s Chances Of Holding The Senate Are Following Trump Downhill (search mode)
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Author Topic: 538: The GOP’s Chances Of Holding The Senate Are Following Trump Downhill  (Read 1388 times)
Virginiá
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« on: August 16, 2016, 12:50:01 PM »


The problem is Missouri and North Carolina have an R advantage at least, Arizona is a toss-up at best. The others you haven't mentioned (FL, OH) are where Democrats have fell behind despite Clinton winning the states. Its definitely a possibility but wouldn't say its plausible that every race that's competitive goes Democrat.

I forget who said it, but something like 80% of competitive Senate seats broke for the winner of the state in a presidential election year. It's also not that crazy when you think Republicans won a boatload of Senate seats in 2010 and 2014 in their blowouts, and if Democrats have their own (mini)landslide this year, it should hardly be written off.

However, I'm not exactly advocating a +8-10 seat gain, either. I think it's entirely possible and even more so the larger Clinton wins by, but if Clinton wins by 2008 margins or more, to think Democrats would only pick up a handful of Senate seats would just be crazy talk (not implying you said that, obviously)

Simply put: I think Senate gains are again going to strongly correlate with Clinton's winning margin, and a total blowout would send shockwaves downballot. Given Clinton's current numbers and polling trends, +8 is not a fever dream (imo)
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