I know the state legislative districts are too gerrymandered to shift the balance of control, but how likely is it that a down ballot disaster could cost the GOP their veto-proof majority in the state chambers? HB2 demonstrated that the NC GOP assembly is more than willing to ram through unpopular bills with no concern for consequences.
Democrats need to either win a net 5 State Senate seats and/or a net 4 seats in the State House to break the GOP's supermajority by a slim margin.
I didn't look at all of the State House races in 2014 but off the top of my head there are at least a half dozen or more marginal districts where a wave could sweep the incumbents out of office. There are theoretically enough State Senate seats to win, based on 2014 where they were < 55% R, and some closer ones even, but I don't know the particulars of those races/areas and the results of 2012 make me wonder if presidential years might actually be better for Republicans in some districts, considering the results of 2012.
I'm bullish on this though mainly because of the shift in support for each candidate among various demographics and what that could theoretically mean for downballot races, particularly in the suburbs. We don't need many seats at all to break that supermajority in at least the House, so yes I definitely think it's possible this year if Hillary performs well in the state. I do think NC Republicans pushed the envelope too far too quickly, legislative-wise, and I don't expect it to be a good year for them.
Also worth noting is that the legislative maps were thrown out and will be redrawn by 2018, so the GOP probably won't have a supermajority in both chambers by 2019, regardless of what happens in this election.
