IL-Gov. 2018 Megathread

[Virginiá]

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/bruce-rauner-2018-race-campaign-finance-232926

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Looks like Rauner is pulling the ol' Rick Scott Special - dump as much of his personal fortune as it takes.

[Virginiá]

Does JB have any noteworthy baggage going into this? I mean, I'm sure we'll all find out soon enough, but I was curious if there were any obvious weak spots known right now.

[Virginiá]

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-bruce-rauner-ken-griffin-20-million-met-20170517-story.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Virginiá]

This is kind of why I'd prefer JB this time around. After a certain point, money only helps so much, but it is definitely needed in these races. Further, a candidate who can't self-fund themselves next year will have a large disadvantage with their campaign and at the same time, will suck up donor money that should instead be going to legislative races, which money definitely does help.

[Virginiá]

I'm sure Governor Rauner's veto of the largest tax increase in Illinois history will somehow hurt him in his re-election bid.

"Illinois families don't deserve to have more of the hard-earned money taken from them when the legislature has done little to restore confidence in government or grow jobs. Illinois families deserve more jobs, property tax relief and term limits. But tonight they got more of the same," Rauner said, in part, in his statement.

Illinois continues to dig its own grave.

Doesn't Illinois have some pretty serious debt and unfunded liabilities issues? Granted I don't know the entire situation behind this tax increase but in IL's current situation, it's not hard to say it is justified if the new taxes are are least mostly put towards those problems.

[Virginiá]

Right, well I think it's fair to say Illinois has been managed pretty terribly for a long time now. It's practically criminal to let the pension issue get out of control like that. This is also partly why I wish all states had some sort of initiative process, so citizen groups could go around politicians who are simply too weak and/or incompetent to make the right choices. In the end, it's almost surely going to fall on Democrats to fix this, since they control the legislature. Although tbh I can't help but feel like they are just going to keep kicking the can down the road until the house collapses around them.

My comment was mostly based on me not understanding how you can solve the budget/pension issue without raising taxes, but at the same time, IL's economic situation probably does need lower taxes (in addition to other changes) to help encourage more growth. How do you solve this? They are completely opposed to each other. With this, it suggests that maybe IL will have to make budget cuts and raise taxes until they get the situation under control, even if that hurts the state for a while. That is the price everyone pays for years of obscenely bad management.

[Virginiá]

Ah yes lets vote for the people who will keep the machine running for another 12 years, good idea.

Good point, but still, Rauner sucks. Run someone else. His tactics are not working. Say what you will about Madigan & Co, but Rauner doesn't seem to be the right person for the job imo. And by no means am I saying someone like Pritzker is right for the job either. I don't really have a high opinion of wealthy businessmen with dubious qualifications buying their way into office.

[Virginiá]

Rauner is an incumbent. Sure, Dillard, Kinzinger, or Rutherford would do better ideologically and at governing, but Rauner's not too incompetent or an extremist. He and Madigan aren't willing to compromise. Sure, it's hurting Illinois, but this is Madigan's machine. He is the one who has to compromise if he really cares about the people of Illinois.

Rauner is not king of Illinois. He won one election, and if he wants his party to have more of a say beyond what he has been able to force out of the legislature, his party needs to win more legislative elections. By no means do I really support Madigan - I wish he would just go away already, and Democrats do need to settle the state finances instead of kicking the can down the road, but I really dispute the idea that in a state as blue as Illinois, a Republican winning one election suddenly means everyone is subservient to him. Same goes for Democratic govs in red states. There needs to be a limit these govs observe to how far they are willing to go to get what they want via obstruction.

[Virginiá]

http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/347778-illinois-governor-shakes-up-staff-after-controversial-white-male

You must be logged in to read this quote.

How many times is Rauner going to shake up his staff before Nov 2018?

[Virginiá]

Rick Scott has 52-37 approval according to MC, I agree on ME, and obviously I disagree on how you view IL, Trump alone can't flip IL when you run the most elitist, Chicagoesque, Corrupt person you can possibly find, and you have Michael Madigan on top of that.

Probably not alone, but anger at local issues will play a role. Rauner isn't viewed as innocent in regards to them, despite whether it's right or not. That's the annoying part about how our elections play out. People take out their anger on the person at the top (and their party), even when it wasn't their fault. Don't underestimate the effect the national environment can have.

As for JB, do the voters themselves perceive him as an elitist, Chicagoesque corrupt person? And more importantly, how elitist and corrupt do they perceive him when compared to Rauner? Let's not forget what state this is. If the voters perceive both to be bad candidates, it's easier for a Democrat in a deeply Democratic state to win that kind of election.

[Virginiá]

Off-topic, but it would be very kind of Ives to open up her seat for 2018. HD-42 swung from 53 - 45% Romney to 51 - 41% Clinton. It would probably be pretty hard to pick that seat up with her as an incumbent, but an open seat would be doable. On that note, there seems to be a lot of opportunities for IL Democrats to reclaim a supermajority. The state GOP would do well to convince her to stick to more practical goals for this cycle.

[Virginiá]

It would be just shy of Safe R.  This is Wheaton.

Maybe. That district wasn't even that safe by 2012 presidential results, and now it's almost a C+10 district. If she runs for that seat again it would be a different story, but there is a substantial difference between challenging an incumbent and running for an open seat, particularly in bad midterms for the White House party. Presidential results are also good, but not perfect predictors for how those races turn out. Again, much more accurate if its open.

This is part of what makes 2018 so exciting. Lots of interesting swings happened in 2016, and now we can see if they will hold, starting this November for Virginia/New Jersey. In Illinois, Clinton won 76 House districts and 42 Senate districts, and if you count districts Obama-Trump districts, it is 83 state House seats. That's a whole lot of opportunities for IL Democrats to take back a super-majority and continue screwing up the state without respite

[Virginiá]

Pritzker is an unmitigated disaster lol

Surely this guy knew those conversations would be used against him...?

[Virginiá]

I feel bad for Illinoisans who consistently must vote for the lesser evil. In VA, we generally have sensible choices. Generally.

You literally have who Dominion Energy picks and that's it lmao.

To be fair, the vast majority of the new Democratic delegates who won all those HoD seats turned down Dominion money. I think it was around 13 or 14 of the delegates - a sizable chunk of the Democratic caucus, so it's no small potatoes.

Obviously many/most of the Republicans and Northam are on the wrong side of that, but there does seem to be hope. Even more hope if Democrats make more gains in 2019 with those same kinds of anti-Dominion delegates.

[Virginiá]

Oh yeah totally. I was being flippant there re: who a *conservative * thinks is reasonable, but I'm enormously optimistic for the future because of A) 2017 and B ) Perriello seemingly working to set up support networks for folks outside of the Dominion pipeline (heh).

Fair enough

If this kind of activity continues, I wouldn't be surprised to see an anti-Dominion HoD with a more sympathetic state Senate in the 2020s. More turnover and more seats in the HoD gives a lot more opportunity for new blood to displace the """pro-business""" Democrats.

[Virginiá]

The Democrats have already lost a bunch of seats because the Republicans just scream  “MADIGAN!!!1!!!1!1” endlessly, just as how Democrats hold only one Congressional seat outside Chicago. One would figure that would happen in the legislature too if the districts were drawn impartially.

I'm just going to shamelessly put out a thread I made on Illinois legislative targets for this cycle:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=278843.0

TL;DR is that I think Democrats are primed to make a lot of pickups this year, particularly after seeing the suburban bloodbath in Virginia and the surge of Democratic support from suburban areas of other specials since (like Alabama and PA-18). Clinton really opened a lot of potential targets in the collar counties.

[Virginiá]

Again, what would you guys have done differently?  He got elected to actually CHANGE how this broken state government operates, and he was opposed at every meaningful turn by the morons in the legislature who helped create this mess.  Now, he's going to lose his job while they all keep theirs and work with a Democratic governor to make it even worse.  Yay, Illinois!

I do think it's kind of interesting how people elected him to fix all these issues, putting aside the problem that that is not really his primary job. America has a real problem with entrusting the head of the executive branch to fix all the state/country's problems despite that person explicitly not having the power to do that in most cases. It's like people think they are electing a monarch.

Isn't part of IL's problem that in order to change pension stuff for people who have already accrued said pensions, they have to amend the constitution? I can't say for sure, but I thought they tried and the voters rejected it? Maybe it is the case then that states like IL and NJ will need bailouts in the future by the federal government. At some point it would be nice if these states amended their constitutions to explicitly prohibit lawmakers from granting such benefits that cannot be paid for.

[Virginiá]

As expected:

Illinois governor’s race spending surges past $200 million

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/04/illinois-governor-race-spending-623662

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not exactly holding my breath here, but if this guy is just going to dump hundreds of millions into his race, it'd be nice if he actually did use a decent amount to support downballot races and local organizations. That would be much more effective long-term than dumping $100 million into ads that will ultimately do little for his campaign.

[Virginiá]

Part of Pritzker's package as a candidate was the ability to not need any money. The idea was that he arms-race Rauner in cash, and then the usual Illinois money and outside groups are diverted downwards, instead of heading for the topline race.

That's true. This might be the best year to focus a torrent of resources on downballot races too. There is a smorgasbord of state House races that could in theory give Democrats a comfortable super-majority if '16 presidential margins stick (even somewhat).

Democrats might need all the buffer they can create for when the state's fiscal / pension situation gets worse.

[Virginiá]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I read the full article with this quote in it and I still find myself questioning reality.

What the hell is going on in Illinois?

[Virginiá]

Over $120 million invested so far on JB's side. Amazing (and not in a good way).

[Virginiá]

Rauner sounded like quite the grump in that debate.

TBH, I'd be quite a grump if I were Bruce Rauner right now.

I'd be really grumpy too if I spent tens of millions of dollars just to get through a primary and then find out I'm losing by double digits in pretty much every poll, with no real path to reelection. I don't know the exact figures, but he has spend an ungodly sum of money for this.

[Virginiá]

This morning's headlines are probably too late to shift the election outcome given Pritzker's lead in the polls, but the charge from the Cook County Inspector General could create a cloud over the next administration. I can see people trying to create deeper links between Blagojevich and Pritzker. They were already featured on federal wiretap tapes together during the primary this spring discussing the disposition of Obama's Senate seat in 2008.

Cook County watchdog says 'scheme to defraud' saved Pritzker $330,000 in property taxes

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This family is worth billions of dollars and they were ripping out toilets in mansions in what stinks like a third-rate sleazy real estate scheme? Seriously? How cheap are these people?

[Virginiá]

Pritzker has his toilet fraud, Rauner has his disease outbreak

Rauner’s Office Contributed To Delay In Quincy Legionnaires' Notice

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Ah, The Prince of Flushes vs General of the Quincy Legions

Such a lavenous and thoroughly inspiring election!

[Virginiá]

So did they manage to find out what biker gang Rauner has enlisted in his GOTV operations?