Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

[Virginiá]

Gallup (June 9th)

Approve 39% (+2)
Disapprove 56% (-2)

[Virginiá]

Gallup (June 13th)

Approve 36% (-/-)
Disapprove 59% (-1)

[Virginiá]

Gallup (June 14th)

Approve 38% (+2)
Disapprove 57% (-2)

[Virginiá]

^ Montana is too entrenched with libertarians/conservatives to flip. That and the lack of population and big pop cities is why I still have it as R. For Missouri, HC got only 38.14% in 2016 so it is long gone for any Dem for a considerable period of time, even in a landslide. It votes like Appalachia, essentially.

In 2004, Bush beat Kerry in MT 59.1% - 38.6%. Granted, Bush did win the PV nationally that year, but it still shows that that margin doesn't necessarily preclude a future Democratic win there (or a narrow loss)

[Virginiá]

Gallup (June 15th)

Approve 38% (-/-)
Disapprove 57% (-/-)

[Virginiá]

Trump just cited the sh**tty lulzmussen poll that had him at 50% approval in one of his tweets today.

A drowning man will grab anything that looks to be floating.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (June 16th)

Approve 39% (+1)
Disapprove 55% (-2)

[Virginiá]

Yeah he may not have the temperament to be re-elected for a second term as President at this point anyway it maybe is looking like.

It didn't, but that does not mean Trump didn't think it would stop. Judging by Trump's own public comments, it seems clear that he believed firing Comey would either end the investigation or slow it way down. I'd like to believe Trump had people telling him it wouldn't work and that he was just too stubborn, but on the other hand, Trump is usually prone to making bad decisions, so that whole debacle was completely in line with his way of doing things.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (June 18th)

Approve 38% (-1)
Disapprove 56% (+1)

[Virginiá]

No, no, no, I think these polls are important, but what I mean is this:

Nothing significant has happened in the past few days or so, so why would the polls shift?

I dunno, but since I check Gallup daily I'll post results here. I probably shouldn't bother checking it daily, but I'm obsessive like that.

My thoughts are that high-30s could be Trump's new baseline, as opposed to his previously low-40s baseline. That wouldn't be that unusual either - presidential approval ratings tend to trend downwards over time, and that happens with or without the added bonus of being the target of a special counsel investigating crimes by presidential aides and possible obstruction of justice by the big man himself.

[Virginiá]

Detailed cross tabs for Pew poll:

http://www.people-press.org/2017/06/20/presidential-approval-detailed-tables-june-2017/

He is underwater with white college graduates by 8%, with 47% of them disapproving strongly.
White 18-29 year olds - 41% approve to 47% disapprove, with 39% disapproving strongly.


People who disapprove of Trump tend to disapprove strongly then, which could bode well for Democrats in 2018.

[Virginiá]

I wonder if trump will get any sort of "bump" from handel winning, as it may cause suburban bimbo republican women soccer moms to jump back on bandwagon.

If they were off the wagon because of him, why would they jump back on because some random Republican won? I would think the issue that made them keep some distance in the first place must be fixed beforehand.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (June 21st)

Approve 39% (+2)
Disapprove 56% (-2)

[Virginiá]

Gallup (June 22nd)

Approve 42% (+3)
Disapprove 54% (-2)

-

This seems like one of his quickest comebacks in approvals so far.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (June 24th)

Approve 38% (-1)
Disapprove 57% (+2)

[Virginiá]

Approve 36% (-2)
Disapprove 58% (+1)

Now I really am thinking his new baseline is upper-30s. If it wasn't, the past week probably should have seen him rebound somewhat, and instead he had a very brief tick up then straight back down, even without an avalanche of damning coverage.

Whereas before, random noise tended to have him oscillate around 40 - 41%, now he just seems to bounce around the mid-upper 30s. I suppose it was only a matter of time before he lost some support permanently.

[Virginiá]

The million dollar question is where has he lost that new permanent support? Is it among Whites with a college degree? Minorities? Whites without a college degree?

Last I recall, the Quinnipiac Poll showed that each time he suffered a drop, it usually hinged on working class whites showing more disapproval. His approval ratings among college educated whites has more or less remained in the 30s the entire time, although their has been a slight downward trend since inauguration. I posted a chart in some thread showing the trend, but I'm not sure which thread. It was weeks ago.

Edit: nvm, I found it in my posted pics folder:

Healthcare bill in the news -> Trump slump

Oh yes, that's true. When was the last time healthcare coverage was dominating this year?

[Virginiá]

Gallup (June 26th)

Approve 39% (+3)
Disapprove 57% (-1)

[Virginiá]

Gallup weekly also has Approve at 39 (+1 from last week).  I don't see how to get the Disapprove number unless you have a subscription.  http://www.gallup.com/poll/203207/trump-job-approval-weekly.aspx

http://www.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx

[Virginiá]

Gallup (June 27th)

Approve 39% (-/-)
Disapprove 56% (-1)

[Virginiá]

Gallup (June 28th)

Approve 40% (+1)
Disapprove 56% (-/-)

[Virginiá]

NH and its wild swings.

Isn't this the state that went from 70% bush to 40 bush?

How quickly? Because the whole country went from 70 -> 40 approvals (and then some) with Bush.

[Virginiá]

Gallup (June 30th)

Approve 38% (-/-)
Disapprove 57% (-/-)

[Virginiá]

Gallup (July 1st)

Approve 37% (-1)
Disapprove 57% (-/-)

[Virginiá]

Gallup (July 2nd)

Approve 39% (+2)
Disapprove 56% (-1)