Trump approval ratings thread 1.1

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Gallup (July 3rd)

Approve 37% (-2)
Disapprove 57% (+1)

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Approval of the President has typically been close to the partisan divide since the effect of 9/11 faded -- in good times.  So it has been with Dubya and with Obama. For approval to go below about 45%, something bad has to happen.

There's not much 'squishy' support. Once one gets below 45% approval, one is starting to lose the support of strong partisans. Non-achievement can take one to 40% and incompetence perhaps to 33%. To go below 33% one needs an economic meltdown, a sex scandal, a diplomatic disaster, mishandling of a natural disaster, or a military catastrophe.

I don't know if 'partisan' is the right word for some of those people. They mostly just hate the other party, but would probably vote for a credible 3rd party candidate. I'm not talking about a 'Johnson' or 'Stein'-type, I mean a legitimately well-funded, competent person who is reasonable and has a unique appeal. Doubly so if one of the major party candidates is a weak challenger.

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Gallup (July 5th)

Approve 37% (-/-)
Disapprove 57% (-/-)


(no poll for july 4th)

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Gallup (July 6th)

Approve 37% (-/-)
Disapprove 57% (-/-)

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Gallup (July 7th)

Approve 38% (+1)
Disapprove 56% (-1)

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Gallup (July 8th)

Approve 39% (+1)
Disapprove 56% (-/-)

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Gallup (July 9th)

Approve 39% (-/-)
Disapprove 56% (-/-)

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Gallup (July 10th)

Approve 40% (+1)
Disapprove 55% (-1)

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Trump hit 40% today. It feels he hasn't hit that mark since May.

Nope he did hit 40% on June 28th, but unfortunately for him this Don Jr revelation is probably going to drag him right back down. That is probably why it was being reported that he was furious when it hit the wire - not because of the consequences so much, but because the Russia stuff was sucking up yet another media cycle again, and just as things started to (sort of) stabilize. Whatever 'stabilize' even means anymore

So far I am convinced that his new baseline is the high 30s, and most of what we will see is his numbers bouncing around below and above it. If that is the case, hitting 40% is nothing but noise.

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Gallup (July 11th)

Approve 40% (-/-)
Disapprove 55% (-/-)

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Gallup (July 14th)

Approve 38% (-1)
Disapprove 57% (+2)

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Pffft that is only marginally worse than his current Gallup poll, and not even his lowest approvals/highest disapproves. A real breath taker would be like 31 or 32% and > 62% disapprove

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Still significant in that we have someone else matching Gallup's numbers. Gallup and Quinnipiac have consistently been the only two showing this big of a gap. Granted, other pollsters have had his disapproval mired in the mid to upper 50's, but his approval has ranged from 35-43 among all the non-Morning Consult polls.

Oh, well when you put it like that, I guess it is kind of significant. I'm just wondering if he'll stay this far underwater both this November and the late October/early November after that. Those are the most important time periods of the next 2 years where it'll count.

Given his consistently high 'strong disapprove' numbers, I'm inclined to think it has some serious staying power.

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Gallup (July 15th)

Approve 38% (-/-)
Disapprove 56% (-1)

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http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-abc-washington-post-poll-historic-low-approval-ratings


https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/886588838902206464

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Good to see the goalposts are being shifted already. And the ABC/WaPo tracking poll had Clinton at +3 in their last poll. That is pretty accurate. More fake news from Trump

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Gallup (July 16th)

Approve 39% (+1)
Disapprove 56% (-/-)

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Look, I know it's hard for incumbents to actually lose reelection but is Trump really more than likely to do so seeing he has a 55% disapproval in a state like Utah?

Just to nitpick - Trump is uniquely unsuited for a state like Utah, and even with such a poor image among Mormons, he still did quite well. However, if by October 2020 he had the same approval ratings he does now and was up against a challenger that was about as popular as the average challenger would be, then he most likely would lose, and probably not by a hair either. In an election where his opponent wasn't almost as hated as he was, his "win" most likely would have been a loss with a margin in between Romney and McCain.

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If he were to have today's job approval rating on Election Day 2020, then yes, he'd presumably lose.  But I don't think the historical record shows that there's any correlation between job approval rating in a president's first year and his job approval rating three years later.

Oh, probably not. I didn't mean to imply that, although I would state that I really don't think things are going to get better for him. Trump isn't that kind of person - the kind of person to take advice and follow it to the letter, to change his behavior and make amends with people and really go out of his way to hit all the right notes. He's dug such a deep hole for himself, what with Mueller and all, that I'm not sure if he can climb out of it. A lot of his perception problems are born from scandals like the Access Hollywood tape, which isn't something he can really talk himself out of with certain demographics.

His best bet is to try and draw a weak opponent that he can tar and feather and bring down to his level in terms of favorables/etc. Even that depends on the economy remaining stable, which is not a given, at least if you go by historical trends. America will basically need to set a new record in longest expansion in history for him to escape a downturn before reelection.

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We'll have to see. Like I was saying, I think this is the wrong end of the business cycle for Trump to be coasting through his first term purely based on a positive economy, and his other scandals/behavior is probably too much to ever truly get back above water - at least for any sustained period of time.

But who knows, that's just my hot take

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Gallup (July 17th)

Approve 38% (-1)
Disapprove 56% (-/-)

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Gallup (July 18th)

Approve 37% (-1)
Disapprove 57% (+1)

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Oh, and finally, let's not forget that while Clinton had "25 years of baggage" the piece of that baggage that dragged her down the most was the most recent scandal, the email scandal which didn't even become public until 2015.  We didn't know anything about it four years ago at this time, so who's to say that once the 2020 nominee's public life is exposed to that level of scrutiny, there won't be some similar thing that consumes their public image?

That's quite possible, but impossible to predict. I really have to disagree with the idea that all candidates are susceptible to being ruined by Trump. At the very least, I'd like to see it happen to a candidate who is a lot more 'pristine' than Clinton, because she had a massive amount of baggage. As Chaffetz said, she was target-rich. There was always something to hit her on, and she had been in the public sphere for so long that many people had formed opinions of her. On top of that, the email scandal was given an obscene amount of coverage and was amplified by a common perception of Clinton that existed long before it happened - that she was untrustworthy and had an agenda. If you took out the email scandal, and by extension, Comey's various actions, she probably would have won comfortably (assuming nothing else changed). As stupid (particularly in comparison to Trump) as that 'scandal' was, voters were very clearly bothered by it. However, again, this is where the likeability and charisma of a candidate come into play - people will forgive all sorts of things if they really like the person.

This is partly why I want Warren to run. Contrary to numerous Atlasians, not only do I think she would make a fine candidate, but she would present a clear contrast to Trump in so many ways, which after 4 years of Trump's freewheeling antics, they will probably be ready for. So far, there isn't really much to attack her on either. Republicans are dead set on making her unpopular, so we'll see how that goes, but assuming nothing major changes I think it would be an interesting election to see. A more polarized opinion of her due to enduring conservative efforts might lower her ceiling a little bit at least for her first election, but I seriously doubt they can derail her chances altogether. Not by a long shot, unless she gets embroiled in some scandal they can blow out of proportion vis-à-vis Clinton's email scandal.

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Gallup (July 20th)

Approve 37% (+1)
Disapprove 58% (-1)

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Gallup (July 21st)

Approve 38% (+1)
Disapprove 57% (-1)

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Gallup (July 22nd)

Approve 39% (+1)
Disapprove 55% (-2)