Politico: Christie's last big move could be filling Menendez's seat

[Virginiá]

http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2017/07/20/christies-last-big-move-could-be-filling-menendezs-seat-113458

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[Virginiá]

Christie's appointee might even have a harder time than Guadagno - the stench of Christie is a kiss of death.

Probably, the most worrying part is possibly giving Republicans an extra Senate vote until the 2018 midterms. In this instance, I think calling a special election would be even worse for for the Republican candidate than holding on until Nov 2018.

Virginia, when the special election would be held? 2017 or 2018?

Surely some time in 2018. You need time for the primary and the GE. Or, he could just let it happen at the same time as the midterms.

[Virginiá]

The governor can't schedule a special election, an election (regular or special), would be held during the 2018 midterm

What do you mean? He did just that in 2013. Even the article explicitly states he can call a special election before the 2018 GE.

[Virginiá]

With the McDonnell precedent, I'm honestly skeptical Menendez gets convicted (he's a corrupt old gasbag but the standard is really high now)

It's possible he walks when all is said and done, but I do share your skepticism to a degree. The McDonnell case seemed a lot weaker than this one. A cursory review of the specifics shows Menendez actually doing a lot more than McDonnell ever did. It looks like McDonnell mostly just took a bunch of gifts but didn't give anything in return, except his time. In Menendez's case, he actually seemed to reciprocate a good deal.

Either way, it's not unreasonable to see his appeals sucking up a few months of time, which would be enough on its own to allow Democrats to punt an expulsion vote to after Murphy takes office. Democrats would have to be fools to help boot him out before then.

[Virginiá]

Democrats might vote to expel Menendez because they will likely hold on to this seat anyway.

The resistance to expulsion wouldn't be out of some worry of losing the seat for a whole term. It would be the fear of giving Republicans an extra Senate vote until Jan 2019. That extra vote would go quite a ways, given the current situation in the Senate. It's totally worth eating a couple months of GOP attacks to make sure Christie doesn't appoint a temporary replacement.