In terms of the Manchin race:
- McKinley is almost 70. He didn't run for Gov in 2016, I doubt he runs for Senate in 2018.
- More likely candidates include Rep. Evan Jenkins (R-WV-03) and/or WV AG Patrick Morrissey.
- I've heard that Morrissey is eyeing this race, so I can see Jenkins just running for re-election while Morrissey guns for Manchin.
I think Alex Mooney stays in the House a few more terms (and He'll increase his margin of victory by a decent amount each time). Maybe in a few cycles he'll run for Sen or Gov, but not now. He's also facing primary challengers this go around, so we'll see how he fares in their primaries on May 10th (he should win easily, but I want to see if it's by a underwhelming margin or not).
I think Manchin will struggle in a 2018 senate campaign. He'll start off with moderate to strong leads between 7%-10%, and it'll slowly become competitive.
This seems well reasoned, but do remember WV is likely to lose a CD next census.
