OH-SEN: Renacci Wins Weak Plurality

[BuckeyeNut]

Tiberi still hasn't made up his mind.

His bank account is bursting, and if Clinton was President, Tiberi could have easily dispatched Mandel in a primary. The fact that Ryan didn't support Tiberi's bid for Chairman of Ways & Means may indicate Tiberi's bored with the House, but it's hard to say. The Kasich-Tiberi-Boehner brand of Republicanism is not fairing well here.

[BuckeyeNut]

Jordan is not a strong candidate statewide.

[BuckeyeNut]

Jordan is not a strong candidate statewide.

I don't know if I agree with that, yes he's very conservative, but he's not conservative in an unlikeable way and he's easily the best known congressman in the state. While Brown is probably too left for the state and Jordan is probably too right, they are similarities to how they go about being on their ideological sides.

Jordan would be a horrible candidate and is a pretty obnoxious guy to boot.  He's easily one of the more unlikable politicians in Ohio on either side (up there with Josh Mandel).  I'd also argue that Tim Ryan probably has higher name recognition in Ohio and that Ryan, Stivers, Tiberi, and Beatty all have better fundraising connections than Jordan (part of this is b/c Jordan is by all account such an insufferable pr!ck that it's often almost impossible to work with him, to the point that he came very close to having his seat eliminated in the last round of redistricting b/c he'd managed to piss off so many folks in the OH GOP). 

There's essentially no meaningful similarity between Brown and Jordan's brands either.  Jordan's brand is essentially "I'm a proudly right-wing on everything and I'll act like a caveman whenever I d*** well please because f*** those liberal wimps and RINO squishes who are always being so PC.  I'd gladly take permanent minority status over any form of compromise every day of the week."  He's like a cross between Jim DeMint and Krazen   He also doesn't have much of a geographic base in the state either.

Sherrod Brown's brand is that essentially that he's a highly principled, fiercely pro-union economic populist who has always looked out for Ohio's working class and won't throw blue-colar Ohioans under the bus.  He is pretty also well-respected (even a number of Republicans here at least consider him a  decent enough guy) and doesn't really come across as a partisan hack or a far-left bomb-thrower.

TL;DR: Jordan would struggle in a statewide primary because even some of the tea-partiers (to the extent that's even still a thing) can't stand him (to say nothing of everyone else in Ohio) and it's not impossible to see him losing the Republican primary in his own district to an A-list challenger (although I doubt that he'll face one before the next re-districting).  Brown is a well-respected and pretty well-liked Senator with a solid base among blue-collar Ohioans.

Jordan may be well known, but it isn't for anything good. If Republicans are mad at Tiberi for holding up ACHA, they must really hate Jordan. Also, the bolded is important. Jordan almost lost his district in '12. He should have never risen above State Senator for the Lima-area.

ION: Kasich suggests he won't endorse Mandel in the Senate general election.

[BuckeyeNut]

Tiberi is out, will not run for Senate.

http://www.dispatch.com/news/20170516/tiberi-wont-run-for-senate-making-mandel-leading-gop-hopeful

That's pretty remarkable, no? I guess he figures his chances of surviving 2018 and 3+ years of deeply unpleasant service and living to see another large Republican majority are better than his chances of defeating Brown. Which makes sense; but in a different environment, the Senate would be a tempting option.  

He's ultra super duper safe in his district and has a massive war chest. I think he made a rational call.

His district actually trended (non-Atlas) blue last year and the Indivisible group in his district is very fierce. It's not the OH-16th, but he could fall next year if things go sideways and an A-list candidate emerges. (But there aren't really any A-listers in the district. Kilroy-retread notwithstanding.)

[BuckeyeNut]

Portman endorsing Mandel just goes to show X's point about Ohio Republican "moderates" from the gubernatorial thread.

[BuckeyeNut]

Tiberi is out, will not run for Senate.

http://www.dispatch.com/news/20170516/tiberi-wont-run-for-senate-making-mandel-leading-gop-hopeful

With Tiberius out, I rate this Lean D. Steve Austria won't run, and neither will Mike Duffey.

Both Austria and Duffey would be complete ass-pulls as candidates. Why on Earth even bring them up?

[BuckeyeNut]

Self-funder Michael Gibbons is in.

Not gonna go anywhere. Especially as, per Cleveland.com, Gibbons won't run as a self-funder.

[BuckeyeNut]

Gibbons announces having raised $250k in the first 24 hours of his campaign, none of it from him. For comparison, Mandel raised $550k in the first 3 months of 2017.

If nothing else, it looks like Gibbons will bleed Mandel's wallet much earlier than anticipated.

[BuckeyeNut]

Financial disclosure of Mandel's travel in 2016 shows all of it as political.

Mandel claims he consolidated official business under political so there was no chance tax dollars went to political travel, but ... now it's really hard to find what, if any, out-of-state work he did. This perpetuates his careerist image, and wouldn't be surprised if it winds up in an ad.

[BuckeyeNut]

Brown reports raising $2.6 million this past quarter, a personal record. His cash on hand is now $6.7 mil., no numbers from Mandel.

[BuckeyeNut]

Brown reports raising $2.6 million this past quarter, a personal record. His cash on hand is now $6.7 mil., no numbers from Mandel.

At least we have this going for us.

The only Ohio polls out so far are Gravis and PPD. Both are bunk. That said, Brown needs to be on his A game, and as of now, he is.

[BuckeyeNut]

Mandel reports raising a paltry $1.3 million, half of what Brown raised. Mandel's CoH is now $3.3 million, Brown's is $6.7. It's early yet, but worth noting Mandel kept much better pace with Brown last cycle and took Super PAC money when Brown did not.

[BuckeyeNut]

Mandel reports raising a paltry $1.3 million, half of what Brown raised. Mandel's CoH is now $3.3 million, Brown's is $6.7. It's early yet, but worth noting Mandel kept much better pace with Brown last cycle and took Super PAC money when Brown did not.

Is Brown planning on taking super cash this time?

Not that I'm aware. He's definitely going for the Bernie angle, his Facebook ads and some emails note the average contribution is $27.

[BuckeyeNut]

Remind me how much Ossoff raised again

Seriously money is not going to buy elections, Brown needs a strong campaign message (which he has time to formulate) that is distinct from the national Democratic brand, which is not popular in Ohio or pretty much anyplace that voted for Trump

As for the notion that Trump winning Ohio big makes it more likely to 'regress to the mean'...that's obviously laughable. Democrats face an uphill battle in Ohio and Iowa at any level these days, and an increasingly difficult battle in Michigan/Wisconsin/Pennsylvania. You'd think for how well versed Democrats are in demographics they would be able to see the obvious trends in these states away from them.

Ossoff's race was always unwinnable, and people rushed into it for the wrong reasons. It has nothing to do with this election. Frankly speaking, money's a pretty good barometer of support, and Republicans outraise Democrats in Ohio the vast majority of the time.

Sherrod's got a message, and it's not explicitly anti-Trump. See statements about how he, Portman, Capito, and Donnelly could fix ACA; or how he's excited to work with Trump on infrastructure and trade. Brown's an OG protectionist, people know it, and that position has always been to his benefit.

As for demographics, you have Democrats on the coast who see that states like Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are losing populations and say "what's the point in trying to get these guys back when the center of population is headed further southwest, and the average American is increasingly less white?" and then you have Democrats in those states who realize you need to make plays to the WWC to actually win, and that a 50-state strategy is the best strategy.

All that said, Columbus and its suburbs are pretty much the only parts of the state that are actually growing, and they're trending heavily to the left, despite still being pretty white.

[BuckeyeNut]

lol, k.

1: Ohio's a lot more elastic than the Georgia 6th. The Democratic ceiling is lower than the Republican one, but they're both high.

2: Tell Senator Portman that "money, past a certain point, does not help secure voters." What you're missing is:

2a: Mandel kept much better pace with Brown this time last cycle. Brown's the best Democratic fundraiser in Ohio since Glenn and Metzenbaum, and he's breaking records.
2b: Brown's fundraising -- unlike Mandel's -- is based in small dollar donations which is a good barometer of organic, grassroots energy.

3: Turnout was up slightly in Ohio, but it was down throughout NEOH, which is the Democratic base. Brown doesn't have Hillary's image problems and should have little difficulty bringing back Obama-Trump voters. They were his voters in 2012 and 2006, after all.

4: We have yet to see a good poll of Ohio. Mandel is unpopular with large segments of the OH GOP who see him as a careerist and an insider. Not a good brand to go out and win Trump, even if he uses his inflammatory rhetoric.

5: Brown is not invincible, but at this point, he is still favored to win re-election

[BuckeyeNut]

This Mandel tweet speaks for itself.

Isn't Josh Mandel Jewish?

Yes.

[BuckeyeNut]

The anti-Semitic left is trying to smear Josh Mandel after seeing the latest polls.

Please, Josh is doing exactly what caused him to lose in 2012: saying idiotic things that eventually caused his own party to abandon him.

Republicans on the forum don't seem to get how unpopular Mandel really is. Gibbons, who's running in the primary against Josh, notably raised $690k last quarter despite only having been a candidate for six weeks.

[BuckeyeNut]

Would Brown be favored if Mandel isn't the GOP nominee?

Probably, since all the heavy-hitters are running for Governor. Tiberi might be formidable if he got to the general, but he likely couldn't make it there given the way the OHGOP has been behaving lately.

[BuckeyeNut]

Tiberi won't run.

That wasn't what you asked. No one else is going to get in on the R side.

[BuckeyeNut]

Tiberi won't run.

That wasn't what you asked. No one else is going to get in on the R side.

How do you know? Only two GOP candidates filed so far. That would be much fewer than the usual number of candidates for the non-incumbent party.

Because all the heavy hitters are running for Governor, and no lightweight is going to take down the most successful Ohio Democrat in the past 30 years.

And Republicans know it.

What is Republican Michael Gibbons like? Is he similar to Mandel?

Not at all. He's an independently wealthy banker/businessman from Cleveland. No real issues stance, except "pro-job growth." Looks "fiscally conservative, socially moderate."

[BuckeyeNut]

Josh Mandel's primary opponent, an independently wealthy businessman by the name of Mike Gibbons, is on the air with a six-figure ad buy attacking ... Senate Republicans?

It's a decent ad, but it looks strange, calling out Senators for, not "repeal[ing] Obamacare and cut[ting] taxes." Mandel isn't in the Senate, and most people don't want the ACA repealed at this point, especially the people who voted for Brown in 2012. Not sure what demo he's going for.

[BuckeyeNut]

Josh Mandel's primary opponent, an independently wealthy businessman by the name of Mike Gibbons, is on the air with a six-figure ad buy attacking ... Senate Republicans?

It's a decent ad, but it looks strange, calling out Senators for, not "repeal[ing] Obamacare and cut[ting] taxes." Mandel isn't in the Senate, and most people don't want the ACA repealed at this point, especially the people who voted for Brown in 2012. Not sure what demo he's going for.

GOP primary voters

But Brown's the incumbent, not Mandel.

[BuckeyeNut]

Josh Mandel's primary opponent, an independently wealthy businessman by the name of Mike Gibbons, is on the air with a six-figure ad buy attacking ... Senate Republicans?

It's a decent ad, but it looks strange, calling out Senators for, not "repeal[ing] Obamacare and cut[ting] taxes." Mandel isn't in the Senate, and most people don't want the ACA repealed at this point, especially the people who voted for Brown in 2012. Not sure what demo he's going for.

GOP primary voters

But Brown's the incumbent, not Mandel.

He's running in a republican primary, and as such must appeal to primary voters before he can face the general. Your messaging needs to be directed at things republican primary voters care about, repealing obamacare and cutting taxes. Voters aren't voting for anyone who's ad is "Well my opponent and I believe the same thing and both think Sherrod Brown should go"

Sure, but he hasn't really contrasted himself with Mandel, either.

I'm, rather obviously, not a Republican operative, and for good reason, but I'd either go after Mandel hard, establish credibility -- which admittedly, I think Gibbons did okay -- or position the candidate as the guy to win the general.

[BuckeyeNut]

At this point in time, Brown looks to be in some degree of trouble.

Polls taken around the beginning of July show Sen. Brown down to Mandel 42-50.

Obviously, he has time to turn this around, and he seems to have some enthusiastic backing from grassroots donations, but being so far behind in polls where undecideds can't even save him can't be very good.

Junk.

There has been no credible poll of this race yet.

[BuckeyeNut]

Some obvious bias in this piece, but I really don't think people get how unpopular Josh Mandel is, even with Republicans. He may well be the least popular politician in the state.