OH-SEN: Renacci Wins Weak Plurality

[BuckeyeNut]

Unless Husted changes his tune to run for Senate, there's no one stronger than Mandel for the OH GOP to run.

[BuckeyeNut]

Unless Husted changes his tune to run for Senate, there's no one stronger than Mandel for the OH GOP to run.

What about Mary Taylor? Her obvious tie to Kasich could attract moderates.

No... Taylor's still got Kasich's endorsement in the Governor's race, but she's running very pro-Trump. Gibbons meanwhile is loaded up with former Kasich staffers. Not that being a "moderate" is how you win a Republican primary in Ohio anyway.

[BuckeyeNut]

Unless Husted changes his tune to run for Senate, there's no one stronger than Mandel for the OH GOP to run.

What about Mary Taylor? Her obvious tie to Kasich could attract moderates.

No... Taylor's still got Kasich's endorsement in the Governor's race, but she's running very pro-Trump. Gibbons meanwhile is loaded up with former Kasich staffers. Not that being a "moderate" is how you win a Republican primary in Ohio anyway.

She is polling above Renacci, who I think is most likely to switch fields and run.

edit: Uhhhh https://twitter.com/Zachary_Cohen/status/949365946329821185

Renacci is polling at like 5% in the Governor's race. Taylor is still a sh!t candidate.

[BuckeyeNut]

Renacci leaning toward jumping in: https://twitter.com/PoliticoKevin/status/949377507345739776

[BuckeyeNut]

Haha, this nazi is getting karma XD.

Those Jewish Nazis are at it again.

You kid, but you're not wrong.

[BuckeyeNut]

Haha, this nazi is getting karma XD.

Those Jewish Nazis are at it again.

You kid, but you're not wrong.

?

Josh Mandel has deep Neo Nazi sympathies despite being Jewish.

[BuckeyeNut]

Perhaps Tiberi resigns still but runs now, inheriting Mandel's infrastructure? I hear the only thing that stopped him from plunging this time was Mandel.

Too late now. Tiberi's got a very cushy gig lined up. Plus, they wouldn't ever share infrastructure. Very different wings of the party.

[BuckeyeNut]

Butler County Sheriff Richard Jones, an early Trump supporter, evidently considering.

[BuckeyeNut]

Renacci might be. Gibbons just pledged to loan his campaign $5 mil. Though, of course, Renacci is also a self-funder and loaned his Gubernatorial campaign $4 mil, which he can give back to himself, and then loan out to his Senate campaign.

[BuckeyeNut]

Mandel is still quite popular with Trump voters and benefits from good name ID.

Getting in this late is will prove to be a major hurdle for damn near everyone.

[BuckeyeNut]

I always thought Gibbons was more intimidating than Mandel anyway. Unless the Ohio posters here can explain why I might be wrong on that?

Name rec has a lot to do with it. If Clinton were President, Mandel would be a worse candidate – despite Sherrod being more vulnerable – as his brand of politics would be hurting, but he's always been one to buck Kasich, and given the coupe in the Ohio GOP that put a Trumpeter in charge, Mandel's vision of politics is on the up and up with the establishment. And for all the talk about being a "self funder," Gibbons has been afraid to actually help his campaign's finances in any meaningful way.

[BuckeyeNut]

Ken Blackwell would be a formidable candidate, he'd do well in the suburbs, but Sherrod Brown would win 60%-40%.

ROTFL

IKR? We could actually run Ted for Senate again and win if the GOP put up Blackwell.

[BuckeyeNut]

The Cincinnati Enquirer has a nice piece on the state of the race.

TL;DR:

Rep. Renacci (OH-16) is essentially waiting for a phone call -- and endorsement -- from Trump.

Vance is being courted by Mitch McConnell, but seems unlikely to jump in.

Rep. Johnson (OH-06) is likely to jump in if he isn't made House Budget Chairman.

Gibbons is desperately trying to keep anyone with name ID and money from entering.

[BuckeyeNut]

Wow. His wife must have a really serious illness for him to drop out.

She's just about as ill as FitzGerald's son was when the whole Irish prostitute scandal dropped.

been gone for a bit, and Ohios blown up. My sources confirm Mandel's wife is genuinely ill

That being the case, I genuinely wish him and his family well.

The Cincinnati Enquirer has a nice piece on the state of the race.

TL;DR:

Rep. Renacci (OH-16) is essentially waiting for a phone call -- and endorsement -- from Trump.

Vance is being courted by Mitch McConnell, but seems unlikely to jump in.

Rep. Johnson (OH-06) is likely to jump in if he isn't made House Budget Chairman.

Gibbons is desperately trying to keep anyone with name ID and money from entering.

Sources close to Johnson say he is not running, a name to keep an eye on is State Senator Matt Huffman, who came close to pulling the trigger against mandel, and apparently has a bunch of donors lined up for a senate president bid.

Seems early to say Johnson isn't running, unless they know he's got the Chairmanship.

Tangentially related to Huffman: do you know what happened to Kevin Coughlin?

[BuckeyeNut]

Guess we won't see Coughlin run for Senate, then. I'm frankly surprised Summit elected a Republican countywide, but 2013 probably for shadowed 2024, and Strckland lost it, IIRC.

[BuckeyeNut]

JD Vance is considering a run now. Seems like the sort of candidacy that maybe sounds good but ends up being disastrous. Would he even survive the primary?

Probably not, especially if Renacci does get in. You'd basically have two Kasich candidates and OG Trump supporter.

[BuckeyeNut]

Bad news for Dems. Renacci is a stronger candidate than Mandel.

Not really, no.

[BuckeyeNut]

Bad news for Dems. Renacci is a stronger candidate than Mandel.

Not really, no.

Basically everyone agreed Mandel was a horrible candidate before he dropped out. Is he now suddenly going to be retconned into a formidable titan now that he's gone to fit the Democratic narrative? Lol

No. But Renacci isn't stronger. He's not as well known, and he's not as good a fundraiser. Yes, he can "self-fund," but he seems unlikely to actually spend the money he loans himself. He spent chump change on his Gubernatorial campaign despite loaning himself $4 million.

[BuckeyeNut]

Bad news for Dems. Renacci is a stronger candidate than Mandel.

Not really, no.

Basically everyone agreed Mandel was a horrible candidate before he dropped out. Is he now suddenly going to be retconned into a formidable titan now that he's gone to fit the Democratic narrative? Lol

No. But Renacci isn't stronger. He's not as well known, and he's not as good a fundraiser. Yes, he can "self-fund," but he seems unlikely to actually spend the money he loans himself. He spent chump change on his Gubernatorial campaign despite loaning himself $4 million.

This.

Furthermore, I'd like to point out that I for one always found Mandel a solid contender. (Even though I've also always though Sherrod was favored.) He was Trump before Trump.

[BuckeyeNut]

Bad news for Dems. Renacci is a stronger candidate than Mandel.

Not really, no.

Basically everyone agreed Mandel was a horrible candidate before he dropped out. Is he now suddenly going to be retconned into a formidable titan now that he's gone to fit the Democratic narrative? Lol

No. But Renacci isn't stronger. He's not as well known, and he's not as good a fundraiser. Yes, he can "self-fund," but he seems unlikely to actually spend the money he loans himself. He spent chump change on his Gubernatorial campaign despite loaning himself $4 million.

This.

Furthermore, I'd like to point out that I for one always found Mandel a solid contender. (Even though I've also always though Sherrod was favored.) He was Trump before Trump.

Let’s not get carried away, Mandel was a horrible candidate.

He wasn't great, but I am taking nothing for granted.

[BuckeyeNut]

Vance for Senate talk already up in flames due to 1: being anti-Trump, 2: questionable residency.

[BuckeyeNut]

At least Mandel had a record of winning statewide.

In 2010 and 2014. Yawn. He also vastly underperformed every other statewide Republican in 2014.

Win = Win

The point is winning as a Republican in Ohio in 2010/2014 is hardly impressive. Underperforming every other statewide Republican showed his weakness as a candidate.

Not impressive? He was the best performing Republican in 2010.

Running against a candidate who had never run for office bigger than Columbus City Council...

It would be saying something if he was running against Cordray, who was originally elected to the position.

[BuckeyeNut]

Portman's endorsed Jim Renacci, signaling his further departure from the establishment wing in Ohio.

[BuckeyeNut]

Rand Paul endorses Mike Gibbons.

https://mobile.twitter.com/davidmdrucker/status/964206767436480513?s=12

lolwut

[BuckeyeNut]

Portman's endorsed Jim Renacci, signaling his further departure from the establishment wing in Ohio.

Kinda a shame, Portman was one of the ones I liked.

Um, isn’t the establishment backing Renacci? Who is he supposed to endorse?

Gibbons, who is the Kasich candidate in the race. The current ORP establishment is not really “establishement” ideologically, but Trumpian.