GA-06 and SC-05 election day & results thread (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 02, 2024, 08:35:47 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  GA-06 and SC-05 election day & results thread (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: GA-06 and SC-05 election day & results thread  (Read 72358 times)
BuckeyeNut
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,458


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -7.30

« on: June 20, 2017, 08:59:14 PM »

Anyone who thought Ossoff could win this was kidding themselves. There was a small chance, but ACHA wasn't brought up enough. His only real shot was winning outright in the jungle, and it didn't happen.
Logged
BuckeyeNut
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,458


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -7.30

« Reply #1 on: June 25, 2017, 11:33:22 AM »

Ossoff actually got less raw votes than the 2016 Democrat who ran against Price. Did he win some Republicans over? Probably. Did low information Democrats not turn out even though there was a bombardment of advertising? Unquestionably.
Logged
BuckeyeNut
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,458


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -7.30

« Reply #2 on: June 25, 2017, 11:36:35 AM »

Just consider this:

Low Investment:

SC-5: Trump 57-39, Norman 51-48 (D + 15)
KS-4: Trump 60-33, Estes 53-46 (D + 20)

Medium Investment:

MT-AL: Trump 57-36, Assaulterforte 50-44 (D + 15)


Maximal Investment:

GA-6: Trump 48-47, Handel 52-48 (R + 3)

While the democrats found success with low or medium Investment, maximal Investment clearly hurt them. Democrats should have spent notably less in GA-6 - it probably would have helped.

This is buffoonish. Compare Congressional races to past Congressional races, not the Presidential.
Logged
BuckeyeNut
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,458


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -7.30

« Reply #3 on: June 25, 2017, 07:54:53 PM »

Just consider this:

Low Investment:

SC-5: Trump 57-39, Norman 51-48 (D + 15)
KS-4: Trump 60-33, Estes 53-46 (D + 20)

Medium Investment:

MT-AL: Trump 57-36, Assaulterforte 50-44 (D + 15)


Maximal Investment:

GA-6: Trump 48-47, Handel 52-48 (R + 3)

While the democrats found success with low or medium Investment, maximal Investment clearly hurt them. Democrats should have spent notably less in GA-6 - it probably would have helped.

This is buffoonish. Compare Congressional races to past Congressional races, not the Presidential.

The previous Dem congressional candidates in 3 of these 4  races were total nobodies. Plus, your party was touting the gains over Clinton in the other 3 races as a sign a wave was coming, but now that that stat isn't in your favor, it's suddenly worthless? Give me a break.

Gains were certainly touted, but, to Chickenhawk's point, different Dems have touted different metrics. I am, at least, completely consistent in saying Congressional results should be compared to Congressional results, not Presidential ones.

And yes, 3 out of 4 prior Congressional candidates were jokes. That's sort of the point. Democrats need to be trying everywhere. 50 state, 435 congressional district, 3,114 county, 350,00 municipality strategy, etc., etc.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.025 seconds with 10 queries.