How many votes will Alito get for confirmation?

[Frodo]

He will most definitely not get anywhere near 75 votes, the margin that John Roberts, Jr. got when he was up for confirmation.  The most likely total will probably be between 55 and 60, being lucky if he gets upwards of 65 senators.  With President Bush as weak as he is, Democrats have little or no incentive to make his life easier by helping to confirm Alito.  Alito will likely pass only with a bare handful or two of Democrats in states Bush won last year joining their Republican colleagues.  But he will ultimately be confirmed.     

[Frodo]

what democrats do you think will join the republicans

Assuming Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island, Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, Olympia Snow and Susan Collins of Maine vote against Alito's confirmation, I am thinking Bill Nelson of Florida, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, Kent Conrad and Byron Dorgan of North Dakota, Tim Johnson of South Dakota, Max Baucus of Montana, Blanche Lincoln and Mark Pryor of Arkansas, and Mary Landrieu of Louisiana would likely vote for Alito next year.