So what would be the ratio of Republican vs. Democrat congressmen with this map? 3 to 7?
Blue and brown will obviously retain their respective Republican representatives.
The orange and purple incumbents will both be lumped into orange. I imagine Rick Larsen (purple) would be forced to move. Purple is Dem-leaning enough that Larsen would retain, although the district could normally be competitive. Orange would be an extremely solidly Democratic district, so it doesn't matter what happens there.
Norm Dicks might move to get his light green district back, which he'd retain. Pink would be competitive as an open seat but Adam Smith would be fine. Brian Baird loses Olympia from his district, but also Lewis County, and the areas of eastern Washington added are pretty moderate. He'd be fine.
That leaves Dave Reichert with a much more unfriendly cyan district (he'd have to move a bit to run too). Yellow would be an open seat. That would be pretty interesting. Without Pierce, Kerry won the district by about 10,000 of 260,000 votes. Assuming that Pierce had about 50,000 votes, that means its yellow contribution would have to be 60% GOP to flip the entire CD, and it wouldn't be. Slight Dem lean, there.
Dicks might run in that district instead, leaving an open seat in the somewhat safer, Tacoma/Bremerton-based light green, but then he'd lose out on his old constituency, and I think he'd object.
So: 2 Republican retains, 1 Dem-leaning toss-up (light green), 1 pure toss-up with maybe a very slight GOP lean (cyan), 6 Dem retains.
Interesting -thanks for taking the time and effort to answer my inquiry.
