ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

[Nathan Towne]

Why the left would be particularly optimistic about North Dakota at the moment is beyond me.

[Nathan Towne]

Why the left would be particularly optimistic about North Dakota at the moment is beyond me.

....because its a senate seat we hold? And we won it in 2012? And there is a strong chance we hold it again?

Except that in 2012, Romney won the State by a margin of 188,320-124,966, a margin of 19.62%. Heitkamp won re-election in the same year 161,337-158,401 which is a margin 0.9%. In 2016, the State went to Trump by 35.8 points, Senator Hoeven won re-election by 61.5 points and Representative Cramer won re-election by 45.4 points. President Trumps second highest approval rating by State is currently in North Dakota, he has come out for Cramer in the election and Senator Heitkamp has consistently voted against significant administration objectives in the areas of taxes, immigration, health care and judicial appointments (excluding her vote in favor of Justice Gorsuch), just to name a few. If the economy remains strong by the November elections and barring some substantial unforeseen event which significantly damages the President, I would not advise you to put much money on Heitkamp winning re-election.

[Nathan Towne]

Why the left would be particularly optimistic about North Dakota at the moment is beyond me.

....because its a senate seat we hold? And we won it in 2012? And there is a strong chance we hold it again?

Except that in 2012, Romney won the State by a margin of 188,320-124,966, a margin of 19.62%. Heitkamp won re-election in the same year 161,337-158,401 which is a margin 0.9%. In 2016, the State went to Trump by 35.8 points, Senator Hoeven won re-election by 61.5 points and Representative Cramer won re-election by 45.4 points. President Trumps second highest approval rating by State is currently in North Dakota, he has come out for Cramer in the election and Senator Heitkamp has consistently voted against significant administration objectives in the areas of taxes, immigration, health care and judicial appointments (excluding her vote in favor of Justice Gorsuch), just to name a few. If the economy remains strong by the November elections and barring some substantial unforeseen event which significantly damages the President, I would not advise you to put much money on Heitkamp winning re-election.

1. ND is a small state, and highly elastic. Obama almost won it in 2008.
2. Heidi was actually predicted to lose in that race, and she was basically trianged. Her win was out of nowhere, and now, she is a moderately popular incumbent.
3. ND is not Trump's second highest state, in fact, he actually has a low approval rating there relative to other states. MC, which does state polls for each state, has his net approval there as +5.
4. Collins has also voting against her state's interest. So has Joe Manchin, Jon Tester, Cory Gardner, etc. The key is how you sell it, not how you vote. Cory sells himself poorly, and thats reflective in polling. Tester, meanwhile, sells himself excellently, and so he is favored to win in a state Trump won by 20 points.
5. Senators from the oppo party have a weirdly high rate of reelection, like 95%, I think.
Im not saying shes a shoe in, but shes not down either.

We have information on polling by State from 2017 and 2018 which is accumulated here:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/739602/president-trump-approval-rating-by-state/
You can take a look for yourself. Trump's approval rating has improved across the entire country since the beginning of April.

Elections in North Dakota for national seats have been becoming less competitive over the last decade or so. This is clearly borne out by elections. So, I wouldn't be especially optimistic if I were you. Of course, I do not take the election for granted, but I do think that Cramer has a clear edge.

As far as your fourth point is concerned, I am not sure what you mean when you highlight Senators who you characterize as having voted "against their States interest" in the past. That is a subjective statement. What matters is how the voters feel about your voting patterns.

[Nathan Towne]

I would not use this statistic, as the tariff situation, which did bring down his approvals in the state, is hard to see. Just use his current approval from Gallup in the state, which pegs it at 57% currently. And, while I do believe Gallup is a good source, its always good to take other sources, such as MC, Emerson, Yougov and other state by state approvals.

The idea that ND is losing its competativeness makes little sense. Yes, the Dems were devastated during the Obama years, but so were they in WV, MT, KY, and WI, and it seems like they are making a comeback in all of these states.

And for the fourth thing, you highlight my entire argument. The voters approve of Heidi only a little  bit less than they value Trump, according to Gallup numbers. They trust her. In fact, Cramer actually has a low approval, even though he should have the higher one, according to partisanship. That is a good sign for Heidi. Again, I view this as a tossup race, but I dont think either candidate has the advantage here.

The record certainly indicates that North Dakota has become a less competitive State over the last decade or so. It is possible, of course, that this trend will reverse, but that has undoubtedly been the trend. Furthermore, the President has now begun to actively campaign for Cramer, portraying Heitkamp, accurately in my view, as a consistently left-wing vote on most major issues. Furthermore, once insulated following re-election, the likelihood that she will cross party lines decreases dramatically which is a message that is being clearly articulated to North Dakota voters. Heitkamp is going to face a tremendous amount of pressure by the time of the election, so it is going to be difficult for her to win. Barring something substantial which negatively impacts the Republican party in the State between now and then, Heitkamp must be characterized as an underdog at this point.