538 Model Megathread (user search)
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Author Topic: 538 Model Megathread  (Read 84726 times)
PaperKooper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 827
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.23, S: 5.57
« on: September 19, 2016, 04:21:05 PM »
Polls Plus - 58.5-41.5 Hillary
Polls Only - 59.3-40.7 Hillary
Nowcast -  57.6-42.4 Hillary

Trump's reached a record high in the Polls Plus model. 
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PaperKooper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 827
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.23, S: 5.57
« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2016, 07:07:53 PM »
I just think that switching the "default" prediction to poll-only was a mistake.  He originally did that since his polls-plus model significantly underestimated Trump in the primaries.  His polls-only model seems to understate the probability of the polls shifting significantly.  Part of that may be that they are shifting more this election than the '12 and '08 elections due to the widely-disliked candidates. 
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PaperKooper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 827
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.23, S: 5.57
« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2016, 12:04:44 PM »
Quote from: Mallow on September 25, 2016, 10:54:25 AM
Quote from: jaichind on September 25, 2016, 10:34:55 AM
538 inputed a WV poll incorrectly. It has a Just Win poll with Clinton +27 when it should be Trump +27.  What a bizarre mistake to make.

Ya, I saw that too. They've since fixed it, though. Odd... you'd think they'd have scripts to automate those things.

They fixed it after I sent them an email. 
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PaperKooper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 827
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.23, S: 5.57
« Reply #3 on: September 26, 2016, 09:45:49 AM »
Trump has set a new record high in poll-plus, 48.1%
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PaperKooper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 827
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.23, S: 5.57
« Reply #4 on: October 02, 2016, 11:50:21 AM »
Quote from: Eleven on October 02, 2016, 12:08:05 AM
In the Now-Cast, Trump has a better chance in Delaware (11.6%) than in Virginia (11.1%).

lol?

Delaware's moving pretty far to the right since Biden and Obama won't be on the ballot. 
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PaperKooper
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 827
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.23, S: 5.57
« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2016, 01:51:08 PM »
Let the salt course through your veins.  
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