The absentee/early vote thread

[Dr. Arch]

Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict
Gotta be pretty darn happy w these numbers if you're HRC
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
The first day of in-person early voting in North Carolina:
Dem 52.7, Rep 24.3
White 67, Black 27.8
Female 55.1, Male 43.5

Great news!

[Dr. Arch]

Florida absentees capturing a Latino surge:

daniel a. smith
daniel a. smith –  ‏@electionsmith

Absentee ballots cast in 2012 GE at this time, 80% by Whites, 9% by Hispanics, 8% by blacks. Thru 10/22/2016, the %s are:
76% W
12% H
8% B

I've been saying this for months, but pollsters have underestimated the tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of Puerto Ricans who moved to Florida in the last 4 years.

[Dr. Arch]

So consensus is NV and VA are looking great for Clinton, IA and OH looking poor and NC and GA are ambiguous?

North Carolina is looking very good, Georgia is hard to say because of oddities with the racial data.

And the reduction of polling places @GA in D areas

[Dr. Arch]

How is Florida looking?

Early voting starts tomorrow, but with mail-in ballots, marginally better for HRC than it was for Obama in 2012, which is good.

[Dr. Arch]

A lot of the Republican areas in WI can start voting today finally. Will get in after work to get my Clinton/Feingold/Ryan vote in.

Bless your soul

[Dr. Arch]

A lot of the Republican areas in WI can start voting today finally. Will get in after work to get my Clinton/Feingold/Ryan vote in.

Interesting but understandable split.

Would love if there was a good Republican for Senate and President. After the last 6 years I regret my Johnson vote in 2010.

Johnson has been horrible. No doubt.

[Dr. Arch]

Daily Kos Elections
‏@DKElections
NC early vote, per @PPPPolls:

2012: 57-42 Obama (Oct. 25: 30% had voted early)

2016: 63-37 Clinton (Oct 22: 19% have voted early)

Nice. Seems to corroborate all the polls showing a consistent HRC lead.

[Dr. Arch]

Gabriel Debenedetti ‏@gdebenedetti  2m2 minutes ago
Even more Team HRC cheering of early vote #s: they note there's been a *99%* increase in Latino voting in FL compared to this point in '12

O_o!

[Dr. Arch]

Gabriel Debenedetti ‏@gdebenedetti  2m2 minutes ago
Even more Team HRC cheering of early vote #s: they note there's been a *99%* increase in Latino voting in FL compared to this point in '12

Are we sure this isn't a typo? I mean how could it be possible?

It doesn't surprise me to this end. Trump is just that toxic.

[Dr. Arch]

So does it seem the early voting tea leaves are lining up with the polling, more or less? I know Dems are lagging in IA/OH and improving in NC/AZ.

Yep, NC, NV, FL, etc. are looking great.

[Dr. Arch]

i know, NV starts getting boring, but...


Third straight day of 30,000-plus voters turning out for early voting in Clark County. 32,500 had voted by 6 PM. 30K voted on Day 3 in '12.
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/790722043620630530?lang=de


how do you step up from titanium?

Carbon-Fiber

[Dr. Arch]

Texas could be a sleeper state this year. As I read in a previous analysis, HRC doesn't need to flip any more Texas counties as much as she needs to make the current ones more D, and this is a tell tale sign of it.

[Dr. Arch]

Given NV margins and how TX is shaping up, it looks like AZ is almost certainly falling in HRC's column this year.

[Dr. Arch]

We're now officially past the 7 million mark per http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

[Dr. Arch]

We're now officially past the 7 million mark per http://www.electproject.org/early_2016

What was it in 2012?

Not sure where to find that information. Anyone have an idea?

[Dr. Arch]

Utah Early Voting
"In early Utah turnout, a third more Democrats than expected have voted."

"About a third more Utah Democrats have voted so far than normally would be expected in early turnout for by-mail voting — while fewer-than-predicted Republicans are casting ballots."

"Through Monday afternoon, he noted that about 82,000 Utahns have cast ballots in the 21 of 29 counties now conducting the election by mail. More than 67,000 of those votes have come in Salt Lake County."

"And 42 percent of Salt Lake County voters are Republicans, but they have cast 36 percent of the vote."

Link for full article: http://www.sltrib.com/news/4502030-155/in-early-utah-turnout-twice-as

#BattlegroundUtah

Could HRC really pick it up!?

[Dr. Arch]

My friend and his family (who moved to FL a year ago) received their mail-in ballots today, and they're sending them in as we speak, full D ballots.

[Dr. Arch]

Call me crazy as i know this forum will obviously....but if first time voters is WAY up regardless of what party they may have registered with, I would be very very happy to hear that if i were trump.

lol

[Dr. Arch]

Call me crazy as i know this forum will obviously....but if first time voters is WAY up regardless of what party they may have registered with, I would be very very happy to hear that if i were trump.

...What?

He thinks first-time D voters are coming out for Trump just as much as first-time R voters.

[Dr. Arch]

The common speculation so far has been that Trump is both a Democratic turnout machine and a Republican suppressor. These results, so far, appear to be in line with such observations.

[Dr. Arch]

@steveschale  5s seconds ago


In bellwether Hillsborough, Dems extend in person early lead. Lead in all votes cast (EV/abs) by 7.5% after day 2.

My friend, who I encouraged to vote, just sent his ballot in Hillsborough.

[Dr. Arch]

Florida is toast for Trump, guys

Steve Schale ‏@steveschale 37m37 minutes ago Tallahassee, FL

CORREX:  Broward had 30k more votes early today (not 25k). Almost tied record day one numbers!!!  #SteveCantAdd

Great news!

[Dr. Arch]

Colorado Update


Dems continue to beat the HOLY HELL out of Rethuglicans in early ballot returns

Democrats are up 23,000 ballots. At this point in 2014, Rethuglicans were up by 27,000 ballots. Turnout spiking in Pueblo and Denver counties.

15 days to Election Day 2016 v 2014. (2014 in parenthesis)

Democrats  117,766 (64,777)
Republicans  94,499 (91,060)
Independent 70,410 (46,404)

TOTAL 286,639 (204,480)

Total turnout up 40%

Great to see this. CO might be my new home state in the not-so-distant future

[Dr. Arch]

washoe county 2012.....




comparison is deadly atm.

and schale is atm deconstructing bloomberg's FL poll:

https://twitter.com/steveschale/with_replies?lang=de

How is it at the moment? More favorable to D?

[Dr. Arch]

Clinton is dramatically outperforming the party splits in early voter sub-samples

She's up 23-26 points in NC when the party split is +17 Dem
She's up 34 points in IA when the party split is +12 Dem
She's up 10 points in AZ when the party split was even (when the poll was taken)
She's up 6 points in GA when the party split probably favors the GOP

This means one of two things:

1. Indies in the early vote are breaking heavily Democratic, or
2. A substantial number of Republicans are defecting

Could be a partial mixture of the two as well.