GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Dr. Arch]

In the SD 32 race, Cobb County has completely reported, so just Fulton is remaining.

KAY KIRKPATRICK (REP)           55.43%   7,920
CHRISTINE TRIEBSCH (DEM)    44.57%   6,368

Yeah, don't think this is going anywhere. What was the last margin here?

[Dr. Arch]

No that's what I mean Ossoff has been "touch me see me feel me" all over the place

As long as he doesn't take this literally....

[Dr. Arch]

Ossoff is probably favored, but no one should be saying that he has it in the bag. House polls really aren't that reliable.

This. People haven't learned from 2016.

[Dr. Arch]

Trafalgar has Handel +2, having found Ossoff +3 last week.

Isn't Trafalgar sort of...well, really bad?

Going into the data, they only have Ossoff with a slight majority of the EV. I don't think that resonates at all with what we've seen in the district.

[Dr. Arch]

#LearnedNothingFrom2016

[Dr. Arch]

#LearnedNothingFrom2016

You mean lets not discuss policy because Trump sucks is a losing strategy!?

More on the lines about polls and overreactions, but yeah, let's go with that too.

[Dr. Arch]

https://www.predictit.org/Market/2932/Who-will-win-the-2017-House-of-Representatives-special-election-in-Georgia's-6th-District Handel has overtaken Ossoff for the first time on the Predictit market

People are going to be freaking out for the next 24 hours aren't they?

[Dr. Arch]

Back to more important discussions, what kind of EV lead should Ossoff be having for a win here, 58-60%?

[Dr. Arch]

Except cannibalization is a thing that killed HRC in many states.

[Dr. Arch]

Except cannibalization is a thing that killed HRC in many states.

How could it?

A vote is a vote. Doesn't matter when the voter casts it. It counts as a single vote all the same.

I've seen this reasoning used by both sides when the other side is doing better in EVs (mostly from the GOP). But that's nonsense. A vote early is a vote banked. Once the vote is cast, the campaign can focus on getting other people to the polls instead. Plus, they don't have to worry about that voter changing their minds before election day due to some mistake or gaf (or better opposition campaigning).

As far as I see it, Cobb has no reason to be more motivated for Handel than they were in the first round when they had more choices. If they didn't come out early for her (a straightforward choice if they were motivated to vote for her), then they might not come out at all--noting that those "banked votes" are proportional to the overall share of the vote that county might comprise in the end.

[Dr. Arch]

I just got a Trump robocall for Handel.  The only problem: I live in GA-9, not GA-6!