If Kasich is the GOP's nominee ...

[PeteB]

Likely R.  I would say Safe R but am careful as OH is a well known swing state and this election has shown that all conventional wisdom is overrated.

Kasich is extremely popular in OH (62% approval in Oct. 2015), and the media there is covering his campaign in minute detail.  Even though a lot of people (i.e. OH Democrats) have issue with his brash behavior, there is a general perception in Columbus that he is a reasonable person with whom you can get things done across the aisle.  There seems also a good deal of state pride in the opportunity of having another President from OH. 

[PeteB]

As someone from Ohio, Kasich would receive a fairly large home-town boost, especially in the Columbus area that he is originally from, where he is still very popular. He would only lose Ohio in a 2008-style landslide defeat.

Agree about the home boost, with the caveat that Kasich is originally from Pittsburgh, PA, not Columbus, OH.