State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[Chief Justice Keef]

Apparently Rosecrants lost OK HD 46 in 2016 with 39.6% of the vote, so tonight's result reflects a 20.8% swing in favor of Democrats.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Honestly, what could kill the GOP next year on the state level is lack of turnout among the base. We've already seen that in other state legislature special elections (the one I can think of off the top of my head is Pellegrino in NY), and if the trend continues you could start seeing 10-15 point swings.

NH tonight is also kinda reassuring because even though Clinton's numbers really dropped off from Obama in 2012, the Dem candidate still won with a similar margin to Obama. That might be taking too much analysis out of the result, but basically it could mean that the large swings to Trump in formerly Dem districts isn't permanent.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Next Election:

September 26, 2017

Florida State Senate District 40   
Florida House of Representatives District 116   
New Hampshire House of Representatives District Rockingham 4   
South Carolina House of Representatives District 31   

For reference:

FL SD 40 went Clinton 58 - 40 in 2016.

FL HD 116 went Clinton 51 - 46 in 2016 and Romney 55 - 44 in 2012.

NH HD Rockingham-4 went Trump 59 - 36 in 2016 and Romney 60 - 39 in 2012.

SC HD 31 went Clinton 72 - 24 in 2016 and Obama 79 - 20 in 2012.