Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[CPT MikeyMike]

Sunday - August 31, 2008

Obama - 48% (-1)
McCain - 42% (+1)

[CPT MikeyMike]

Some additional notes...

Comparing Obama's current 49% support with the 45% he received immediately before the start of the Democratic National Convention in Denver last week suggests he received a 4-point bounce out of the convention, fairly typical of past convention bounces. Aside from the past few days, Obama has only once previously attained 49% support from national voters, and that was in late July.

The determination of this year's Democratic convention bounce is complicated by the fact that McCain announced his pick for vice president -- Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin -- on the first morning after the convention, thus diverting considerable media attention to the McCain campaign that otherwise would have been focused on recapping the Democratic convention and Obama's Thursday night acceptance speech. However, even using Friday's Gallup Poll Daily tracking report as the indicator of Obama's convention bounce produces the same result. Obama was preferred by 49% of registered voters in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 26-28, after the Democratic National Convention was underway, but before the Palin choice was made public.

Given this year's unusually condensed convention and vice presidential selection calendar, today's tracking report also represents the first three days following McCain's vice presidential announcement. McCain's 43% level of support in today's report contrasts with 41% supporting McCain right before the Palin choice was revealed, giving McCain a 2-point vice presidential selection bounce.

While lower than typical vice presidential selection bounces, McCain's 2-point vice-presidential bounce is technically better than the complete lack of a vice presidential bounce seen for Obama with his selection of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden on Aug. 23. However, from a statistical standpoint, both shifts are within the margin of sampling error, and thus not significant.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Sunday - September 7, 2008

McCain - 48% (+3)
Obama - 45% (-2)

These results are based on Sept. 4-6 interviewing, and include two full days of polling after the conclusion of the Republican National Convention last Thursday night. McCain has outpolled Obama on both Friday and Saturday, and is receiving a convention bounce just as Obama did last week.

Tomorrow's report will be the first in which all interviews were conducted after the conclusion of the convention. Gallup measures convention bounces by comparing candidate support in the last poll done entirely before a party's presidential nominating convention begins with the first polling conducted entirely after its conclusion.

McCain's 48% share of the vote ties for his largest since Gallup tracking began in early March. He registered the same level of support in early May. This is also McCain's largest advantage over Obama since early May, when he led by as much as six percentage points. Obama has led McCain for most of the campaign, and for nearly all of the time since clinching the Democratic nomination in early June.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Tuesday, September 9

McCain - 49% (nc)
Obama - 44% (nc)

McCain led Obama by five percentage points in Monday's report on the strength of a six-point increase in the percentage of voters choosing him on the presidential trial heat following the Republican National Convention. McCain's 49% support in today's three-day rolling average, based on Sept. 6-8 interviewing, is unchanged from Monday's report and matches McCain's high mark in Gallup tracking to date.

Gallup polling in recent days has been quite stable, showing McCain ahead of Obama by similar margins in each of the last four individual days of nightly tracking. McCain also had a 4-point lead over Obama among registered voters in the separate USA Today/Gallup Poll conducted this past weekend.

[CPT MikeyMike]

RCP average has McCain up 2.3.