How likely is this map?

[Joe Biden 2020]

Obama - 268
Romney - 270

I decided to give Virginia and New Hampshire to Romney, as well as Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Probably the most likely scenario for a Romney victory (though some of the percentages are off; Obama wouldn't break 60% in so many states)

I know Virginia is probably going Obama, and Wisconsin, Iowa, and Michigan are not in the bank for Obama, either, so I could have very easily flipped two of those three (especially Wisconsin and Iowa).

[Joe Biden 2020]

Disturbingly plausible. My guess at this point is that Virginia will be the tipping point for either side.

That's my guess for the tipping point and thus may be one of the last states called.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Florida is way more favorable to Romney than Virginia is. Romney needs to lock in Florida and North Carolina early (he's doing an okay job of it at the moment). The heavy lifting will be in Ohio and Virginia. I also think he can pull it off. But again, it's the one extra state that will really get Romney. I don't know where he gets those EVs.

I'm having a funny feeling those extra votes could come from Wisconsin mainly due to the polling and shear backlash toward the Democrats.