Congressional Quarterly Releases Gubernatorial Forecasts for 2009-2010

[Joe Biden 2020]

Oklahoma should be moved from Lean Republican to Lean Democrat.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Oklahoma should be moved from Lean Republican to Lean Democrat.

Do you have a viable (and declared) Democratic candidate or are we just going to have to trust your knowledge as a self-proclaimed "expert" on Oklahoma as usual?

I think the Dem Lt. Gov. has declared. Jari something.

Yes, Lt Gov Jari Askins is running and she is immensely popular in the state.  Dem Atty Gen Drew Edmondson is also running and he, too, is immensely popular.

It will definitely be a close primary and a close race, but I don't see the Democrats having a real bloody primary and I forsee the loser graciously backing the winner in the general.  On the other hand, I see a potentially fiery primary on the Republican side with Fmr Lt Gov Mary Fallin possibly facing Fmr Rep. JC Watts, Jr.  Currently Fallin is the only one declared.  Other Democrats could be State Treasurer Scott Meacham and State Sen and 2008 US Senate nominee Andrew Rice.  Other Republicans could be State Sen. Randy Brogden (Owasso) and 2002 Indy Candidate Gary Richardson.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Oklahoma should be moved from Lean Republican to Lean Democrat.

I think the reason why CQ placed Oklahoma into the Lean Republican category is similar to the situation in Tennessee. You have two relatively popular and very conservative Democratic governors in OK and TN (Henry and Bredesen), two of the few states in the nation that swung Republican in 2008 - meaning, states where McCain performed better than Bush did in 2004. These two states are becoming more Republican for whatever reason and I think that gives the Republican candidates a slight edge in these vacant seats.

I can see that, and I'm not suprised we're in the lean GOP category, but I just think the odds favor the Democrats next year.  Actually, McCain only scored 16 more votes than Bush did in 2004 in Oklahoma.  The McCain/Obama tally was the same as Bush/Kerry - 66/34.  I don't think you can really call that a trend in either direction, that's more staying put.  I know that most states trended more to the left and that makes staying put look like trending right, but in terms of raw numbers we didn't trend anywhere.  Now, granted, 2010 won't be nearly as lopsided as 2006 was when Henry slaughtered Istook, but it should still be a Democratic win.

[Joe Biden 2020]

She has populist appeal like Betty Castor and Jean Carnahan and Claire McCaskill and Robyn Carnahan. Just like they felt buyers remorse concerning Jim Talent over Carnahan with Clair, I think the same will very well hold true concerning Betty Castor with Mel Martinez concerning Sink. She will defeat any Republican challenger that's not name Bush or Crist.

Sink is overrated.  And how would buyer's remorse from a Senate seat in 2004 translate to victory in a gubernatorial race in 2010?  It doesn't make sense.

You tend to forget that Mel Martinez was Bush's HUD secretary.  Bush won Florida in 2004 by 5 pts and he carried Mel Martinez to a small victory. Bush and the GOP is veryunpopular and caused Obama to wiin  FL.  I think that the Dems should do very well in FL just like Bush did in 2004.

And the only two names that were able to win was either Bush or Crist or someone who was backed by Bush. Who are the republicans going to run Bill McCullum who was very unpopular in the impeachment of Bill Clinton and ran statewide in 2000 and lost. He is a joke.

I wish Bob Graham would come out of retirement and run for governor.