Who would win TX Primary ... Joaquin Castro or O'Rouke?

[UWS]

I think Castro would be heavily favored in the primary, but obviously he'd lose the general by a substantial margin.

What was the percentage of the Hispanic vote  (Cuban, Mexican or any other race) Ted Cruz won in 2012?

[UWS]

I think Castro would be heavily favored in the primary, but obviously he'd lose the general by a substantial margin.

What was the percentage of the Hispanic vote  (Cuban, Mexican or any other race) Ted Cruz won in 2012?

In 2012- Ted Cruz got 35% of the Latino Vote.  Latinos will have have substantially more voters in 2018... and I think Cruz would get a much lower % in an election against Castro.

FWIW- some polls have a hypothetical Cruz vs Castro at 42%-42% (16% undecided)

Give me the link of this poll, please.

[UWS]

What % of the Latino vote do you think Castro would receive in the general against Cruz?

IMHO - 70-75%. IIRC Texas Latinos are more conservative then national one. Bush had good Latino's percentages in Texas in 2000 and 2004. But i don't believe in great Latino turnout in midterms.

If Castro gets 75% of the non-white vote... he would be about tied with Cruz (under normal turnout percentages)... if he get 75% of non-white voter & there is increased Latino turnout (due to a popular well know Mexican-American running)... Castro edges out the win.

Is this right?  And if so, do you think Democrats will have the edge in Texas by 2028?

Lose Cruz