2004 if US soldiers captured or killed Bin Laden by the end of 2001

[UWS]

In that scenario George W. Bush would win re-election in a landslide, he would likely win Pennsylvania where Flight 93 crashed in Shanksville Pennsylvania. He would make New York competitive or win New York as a poll released a week after the 2004 Republican National Convention in New York City that he was trailing in that state by just 5 or 7 percentage points. And probably New Jersey would flip as it was much closer than New York. President Bush wins with at least 350 electoral votes.

[UWS]

The moreover that as Bush mentionned during his 2003 State of the Union Address terrorist cells were stopped in Buffalo, New York in 2002. This along with a success of the Tora Bora operation would have increased Bush's chances of winning New York

https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/onpolitics/transcripts/bushtext_012803.html

[UWS]

BigVic if George W Bush wins New York and New Jersey, he surely wins Wisconsin and Minnesota

[UWS]

As for Connecticut, the margins would be very close especially in southern Connecticut that are in very proximity to New York City