So, just to ruin the suspense, what's going to happen here is that if Trump wins, he will offer a pardon to Cuellar in exchange for a party switch, and Cuellar will accept and become a Republican.
On the other hand, if Biden wins, Cuellar will likely end up being convicted and if so will serve out whatever his sentence is without a pardon.
What's more likely is that a Republican will defeat Cuellar for a one-term rental. The same thing happened to William Jefferson, and he went down in a wave year (2008) in a much more D-friendly district (New Orleans).
Also, Cuellar voted to impeach Trump twice. No loyalty, no pardon.
