North Korea Mega Thread

[GoTfan]

I actually think Trump wants war. Wars are good for approval ratings. He wants something to improve ihis rating.

Trump is a madman and a danger to the entire world as lons his approval rating is low.

[GoTfan]

I actually think Trump wants war. Wars are good for approval ratings. He wants something to improve ihis rating.

Trump is a madman and a danger to the entire world as lons his approval rating is low.

I think this is true, but I'm equally confident he wants a short, easy war. North Korea might fight back, which probably scares him. And even if it can't, it'll be a complicated mess to sort out, and Trump hates real work too.  Now, he is amazingly stupid, so it's possible he will think it's a quick walk in the park (especially if he'll get to use those nukes he loves so much).

But I'm hopeful that his babysittersthe White House Staff and Cabinet will successfully use a combination pretty pictures ("See how imperial you look on the Fox News broadcast?"), dire warnings of real consequences ("the Chinese won't let you build a 70-story gold-plated casino in Macau") and colorful distractions ("Somalia is full of pirates, invading it will be awesome!") to keep him distracted from The Button.

Pfft. His cabinet either is made up of hawks who want war or who are too scared to stand up to him.

[GoTfan]

Oh lord...

Well that's it.  Armageddon time.

[GoTfan]

If we see out Auggust and no one does any more stupid saber-rattling, will we be in the clear for a time?

[GoTfan]

If we see out Auggust and no one does any more stupid saber-rattling, will we be in the clear for a time?

Somewhat but not totally. Every Feb and August are the drills which has NK up in arms every time we do those and why they are concerned. So yes and no.

I'll take it.

[GoTfan]

If we see out Auggust and no one does any more stupid saber-rattling, will we be in the clear for a time?

Somewhat but not totally. Every Feb and August are the drills which has NK up in arms every time we do those and why they are concerned. So yes and no.

I'll take it.

Good article on Freedom Guardian (Aug drills) sch for 21-31 Aug. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/11/north-korea-us-south-korea-huge-military-exercise KCNA article said the NK gens will present the plan to KJU to hit Guam in mid-Aug (15 Aug) for a go/no go. We are getting close. Either Kim blinks and does nothing or he goes all-in or is overruled by his gen staff.

Why would his staff overrule him? If Beet's theory is correct, they're the hardliners here.

[GoTfan]

@Gotfan The theory (among others) is that they view KJU as weak. While he is a leader and almost God-like to the general populace, the old salts view him as a fat weakling but put up with the charade. If the hardliners actually think the US would strike and Kim says no-go, they might go around him but I think if Kim thought we would pre-empt, he would order the strike anyway. Catch 22.

So you're syin a strike is inevitable?

[GoTfan]

I wonder what this could mean.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/896017139831799809

I think someone on here theorised this exact situation. Use back-channels so both sides can back down without losing face,

[GoTfan]

"Talking is not the answer"

Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump  7 hours ago
 The U.S. has been talking to North Korea, and paying them extortion money, for 25 years. Talking is not the answer!

He's f***ing lost it.

[GoTfan]

"Talking is not the answer"

Donald J. Trump‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump  7 hours ago
 The U.S. has been talking to North Korea, and paying them extortion money, for 25 years. Talking is not the answer!

Uhhh, we don't recognize them or have any kind of diplomatic relations with them. That doesn't constitute two countries "talking" to each other. The president does not understand international relations even on the level of what you'd learn in an intro IR college class full of 18 and 19 year olds.

I knew that neither country had formal relation back when I was 12.

[GoTfan]

War in three months, China intervenes in 6 months,  Armageddon in 9 months.

[GoTfan]

War in three months, China intervenes in 6 months,  Armageddon in 9 months.

Maybe, no and no.

I've got money on all three. Trump will end the world simply to satiate his own ego.

[GoTfan]

The Swiss have offered to mediate discussions

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11917139

[GoTfan]

Well that's it then. We'll be at war in the morning.

[GoTfan]

A missile launch is coming. I can feel it.

[GoTfan]

Anyone else think Nikki Haley should be Secretary of State instead of Tillerson?

[GoTfan]

Great statements re NK by Trump at the UN. The UN needs to do "much more" as Trump put it and I agree.

Vacuous stupidity is vacuous stupidity. Putting the foolish and dangerous words, "something must be done!" into even fewer syllables is no accomplishment, save in the annals of idiocy.

The annals of idiocy is doing nothing of substance for close the thirty years

Stop right there. Typical right wing nonsense. Ignore the diplomatic success that was wrecked by Republicans.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agreed_Framework

And then start frothing about how essential bombing is.

Except here's the kicker - I'm not right wing, so feel free to stop with the us vs. them fallacy BS. They have violated the Agreed Framework from the start and are still importing parts and materials as well as finding ways to get around sanctions for both the nuclear program as well as cash for the regime. It cuts both ways. I think Clinton was right in that he wanted to avoid a conflict but he was wrong in that he didn't shut them down completely when he had the chance. Remember this was done in 1994 when the US was the only superpower and we had all the strings available to us with the breakdown of the USSR. NK should have been shut down then but it was allowed to continue its shenanigans under ALL administrations since then, both under Democrats and Republicans.

Ghost, is it ok to allow a regime to continue when they do things that are illegal under intl norms? We are at the point where substantive action can be taken on the NK issue and people are still defending that regime or dithering on past actions. The time is now to make sure NK can't continue its nuclear programs and to end its epic crimes against humanity via the UN and the US, preferably without a war. The clock continues to tick.

They let Saudi Arabia get away with egregious human rights violations.

[GoTfan]

"South Korea expects more provocative acts by North Korea in mid-October" - Reuters https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-southkorea/south-korea-expects-more-provocative-acts-by-north-korea-in-mid-october-idUSKCN1C3073

"South Korea expects more provocative acts by North Korea next month, to coincide with the anniversary of the founding of the North Korean communist party and China’s all-important Communist Party Congress.

During a meeting with President Moon Jae-in on Thursday, national security adviser Chung Eui-yong said he expected Pyongyang to act around Oct. 10 and 18, but gave no details."

--

Either another ICBM launch or potentially the hydrogen bomb test in the Pacific (most likely not an H-bomb but a boosted fission bomb). If it's the latter, I expect things to go from 7 (where we are now) to 9 or 10 very quickly.

Since you seem to be our resident expert on North Korea and this region in general, how do you think China, and more importantly Jinping would react if they start making trouble during the Congress?

[GoTfan]

Tillerson says the US is in direct communication with NK but still predicates any meaningful talks with them on their denuclearization. https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/09/30/world/asia/us-north-korea-tillerson.html

That will never happen. It all seems last ditch effort to me.

Looks like you were right.



Tillerson has failed to stop the Twit-in-Chief, who is so stupid/demented that he doesn't understand that Korea had three different leaders in the last twenty-five years.

(Republicans, Turmp and his actions are your responbsibility. Both because you voted for him, and because you refuse to remove him even when the evidence of gross mental incapability is staring you in the face.)

Hopefully the generals who are calling the shots in the so-called Trump administration will distract President Spoiled Brat with some pretty pictures or a Trump Is Amazing storybook and prevent war.

Well, that's it then.

[GoTfan]

Good article by a reporter on his trip to NK, observations, etc. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/05/opinion/sunday/nuclear-north-korea.html

A prediction of an October 9th test by Yong Suk Lee, deputy assistant director of the CIA's Korea Mission Center: https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2017-10-04/cia-official-predicts-north-korean-provocation-on-columbus-day

If this test occurs it would be the morning of the 10th in the US or late on the 10th if they test a day late due to the 12 and half hour time zone difference (using US EST).

Wouldn't it be the other way around? NK is 8.5 hours ahead of GMT, so late on the 9th in the US would be the morning of the 10th in NK.

Yes, fixed it in mine.

Pyongyang (North Korea)                    Monday, October 9, 2017 at 8:00:00 pm PYT UTC+8:30 hours
Washington DC (USA - District of Columbia) Monday, October 9, 2017 at 7:30:00 am EDT UTC-4 hours   
Corresponding UTC (GMT)                    Monday, October 9, 2017 at 11:30:00       

If the test happens, then Trump will likely want to declare war.

[GoTfan]

Wait a sec, isn't the 18th during the Chinese Communist Party Congress?

[GoTfan]

Wait a sec, isn't the 18th during the Chinese Communist Party Congress?

Yep, that's what's thought to be going on.

Xi won't be happy about that.

[GoTfan]

Wait a sec, isn't the 18th during the Chinese Communist Party Congress?

Yep, that's what's thought to be going on.

Xi won't be happy about that.

"During a 2014 meeting with North Korean officials, Kim Jong Un called Xi a "son of a b----" and the Chinese "sons of b------," Ri said, adding that there is fear China will "betray" North Korea."

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/17/north-koreas-economy-may-not-survive-another-year-defector-says.html

Loving the fact that Kim now hates the Chinese too, thereby aiding in our effort to contain him. He is going the way of Hitler now, enemies on all sides, lashing out at everyone - not a good outcome for him.

Xi's actually been fairly critical of North Korea too, hasn't he?"

[GoTfan]

Tunnel at Punggye-Ri has collasped; reportedly 200 dead. Also, a lot of worry regarding the radiation that can leak from the site.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/north-korean-nuclear-test-site-tunnel-collapse-reportedly-kills-200-2017-10?r=US&IR=T