538 Model Megathread (user search)
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Author Topic: 538 Model Megathread  (Read 84717 times)
AGA
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,283
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: -4.70

P P
« on: August 29, 2016, 10:48:14 AM »
The polls-only model gives Clinton a higher chance of winning NE-02 than ME-02. Interesting, but probably due to the poll of ME-02 that had Trump up by one point.
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AGA
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,283
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: -4.70

P P
« Reply #1 on: September 14, 2016, 05:35:11 PM »
Quote from: ExtremeRepublican on September 14, 2016, 04:37:05 PM
538 has Maine more likely to vote Republican than Virginia in all three models and ME-02 almost as likely in the nowcast to go for Trump as Arizona!

Interesting. Trump has seen some favorable polling for him coming out of ME-02, but I sincerely doubt that he is as likely to win it as he is to win Arizona.
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AGA
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,283
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: -4.70

P P
« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2016, 12:51:23 PM »
538's polls-only forecast gives Trump a higher chance of winning ME-02 than NE-02. How accurate is this?
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AGA
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,283
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: -4.70

P P
« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2016, 09:45:00 PM »
The polls-only model gives Trump a 0.4% chance of winning DC!
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AGA
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,283
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: -4.70

P P
« Reply #4 on: October 06, 2016, 10:02:31 AM »
Clinton is now winning Arizona in the now-cast.
Logged
AGA
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,283
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: -4.70

P P
« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2016, 02:14:27 PM »
The polls-only forecast gives McMullin a 3.3% chance of winning Utah.
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AGA
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,283
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: -4.70

P P
« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2016, 05:10:57 PM »
If you scroll down and check the snake of the polls-only forecast, Nate Silver has Nevada voting to the left of North Carolina, but with Trump winning Nevada and Clinton winning North Carolina. Maybe this is because both are tied in the model and the snake just sorts alphabetically at that point.
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