What would a Rubio electoral map have looked like?

[AGA]

I think that Rubio would have beaten Clinton. The electoral margin may not have been as large, but he would have won the popular vote because he would not have done a lot better in California and Texas than Trump. Third party voting would be lower because Republicans would have an easier time getting behind Rubio.

Rubio: 288
Clinton: 250

His appeal amongst affluent voters gives him Virginia, and his appeal amongst Hispanics gives him Colorado and Nevada. However, he would be weaker amongst white working class voters than Trump, so he would not win Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania. He would still win Ohio and Iowa.

[AGA]

I think that Rubio would have beaten Clinton. The electoral margin may not have been as large, but he would have won the popular vote because he would not have done a lot better in California and Texas than Trump. Third party voting would be lower because Republicans would have an easier time getting behind Rubio.

Rubio: 288
Clinton: 250

His appeal amongst affluent voters gives him Virginia, and his appeal amongst Hispanics gives him Colorado and Nevada. However, he would be weaker amongst white working class voters than Trump, so he would not win Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania. He would still win Ohio and Iowa.

Isn't Rubio far more likely to lose Iowa since that state has a higher % of working class whites than WI or PA?

Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, however, have more African-Americans than Iowa, making them easier for Rubio to lose. Trump won Iowa by such a large margin that almost any Republican would have beaten Clinton there.