Most likely map for a Trump win at this point?

[uti2]

PA + NC + FL +OH is his only bet.

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Florida is gone. His only road now is Minnesota.

Well, FL is more likely to flip than Minnesota.  Cubans =/ Mexicans.

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His numbers with Hispanics are that bad. Florida is gone.

He's also winning the EC while losing by 2 percent of the vote.

Again Hispanics =/ Mexicans and Cubans =/ Mexicans. FL is still more likely than MN, that goes for any R candidate.

Only way he wins Minnesota is if he also wins the Pacific NW and New England, which would have to be in some sort of a landslide, like a terrorist attack just hit the country or something to that effect.

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The numbers don't reflect that. It is quite possible to win Minnesota without winning Michigan, or anything in New England save New Hampshire.

The numbers also show OR and CT to be competitive. MN is the same category. That's my point.

[uti2]

Actual map right now - 462-76. With LA flipping.

Realistically, the country is too polarized for that to happen. Even under an economic collapse occurring under a Republican president, a significant portion of the country still favored Mccain over Obama, and Obama was consistently polling better vs. Mccain than Hillary was. The base is the Mccain map +/- a few states, that goes for any R candidate.

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That's with college educated whites flipping to 53 percent democrat. It is very much possible.

This is a guy who says that Cruz could easily win. What's different with Cruz?

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Principled conservative who's not a racist?

'College educated Whites', and minorities do not like 'principled conservatism' anymore than they like 'racism'.

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Principled conservative who's not a racist?

That's why Cruz was down -10 in the last CNN poll. Sure.

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That's better than how Trump is doing right now. He's losing 60-38.

No, Cruz and Trump were polling about the same vs. Hillary all-throughout 2015 (both around -5), Cruz only eclipsed Trump for a couple months following Trump's muslim ban remarks, then Cruz's numbers reverted to the mean and collapsed to similar margins as with Trump.

[uti2]

Romney states + OH, PA, and FL (and maybe IA) seems like the only plausible Trump win. I'm not seeing any hope for him in NV, CO, WI, or NH.

NV is possible because of the celebrity effect, and CO and NH are possible if Hillary fails to unite the left leaning independents a la Gore.

[uti2]

Romney states + OH, PA, and FL (and maybe IA) seems like the only plausible Trump win. I'm not seeing any hope for him in NV, CO, WI, or NH.

Pretty much this. I could maybe see Virginia flip as well but it's unlikely.

That's what I mentioned for his core map. That being said, considering weaknesses intrinsic to Hillary, she's at risk in NV, CO, and NH a la Gore. She shouldn't assume that left leaning independents will necessarily vote for her, she actually has to campaign for them, if she doesn't, she might make the same mistakes that Gore did.

[uti2]

^I don't think the "celebrity effect" would be enough to offset Trump's weaknesses among Latinos in Nevada. For similar reasons, I don't see him doing well in Colorado. New Hampshire voters seem too well educated to vote for Trump.

Were NH voters too educated for Bush? That's my point.

As for NV, it has a lot of non-mexican hispanics too, not as many as FL, but non-mexican hispanics are another category.