NH-ARG: Kasich leading Trump, Pence in GOP primary.

[uti2]

Are you guys seriously believing ARG? They suck as a company.

The Pence numbers are more interesting than the Trump numbers.

This poll is worse news for Pence than Trump. The fact that Pence can't even break 30% in the state demonstrates that his base is pretty small there. Obviously, margins can be improved during the course of campaigning, but Pence will have to deal with an inherently smaller level of core support, esp. amongst Moderate Republicans.

[uti2]

There need to be an adjustment to the idea that all Trump voters are inherently also 'Generic R' or Pence voters. Trump consistently won sizable numbers of moderate/liberal republicans.

[uti2]

John Kasich running as an Indy defeats his purpose.  People like Kasich and "#NeverTrump Republicans" don't just dislike Trump as a person, they take great issue with the influence he's had on THEIR party, a party they were members of and gave decades of service to before Trump ever joined it.

And yet ignored the trends and economics of modern America that gave way for Trump's win. They have no one to blame but themselves. I have been to a few GOP meetings in years past as a volunteer for campaigns and as a member (albeit short-lived) and I can tell you that they bubble is small and increasingly such. They are ignoring the call for moderation time and time again. Kasich would be in that mold and have the country-club economics (which they need to ditch) so it would be a crossover appeal situation.

All I was saying is that these people aren't out to get Trump, they want their party to stand for something that isn't "Trumpism," so they're never going to just LEAVE the GOP; they're going to fight for its soul.  You say ditch "country-club economics" (you know who else was accused of economic policies only helping the country club?  Lincoln, Grant, Coolidge, Eisenhower and Reagan ... at a certain point, if you don't like the GOP, don't vote for it), I say fix the messaging.  Trump is still governing largely like a generic Republican.  There is a party for demonizing those who make it in our capitalist economy, and it ain't the GOP.  That doesn't mean only have policies that help the rich, that would be ridiculous; it also doesn't mean become a culturally conservative version of the Democrats.

Such 'great messaging' allowed an incumbent Bush who campaigned as a moderate compassionate conservative who expanded medicare to win 2004 by a similar margin as Trump (100k votes in OH), and allowed him to win as a non-incumbent by less than 500 votes in 2000.

Maybe it's not the messaging, but the fluke of Bushism, who barely won despite running as a relative moderate.

[uti2]

^To add to that train of thought, don't forget that a lot of people initially thought they were getting Bush Sr. part 2 when Bush was elected in 2000.

[uti2]

Trump destroyed everyone in the NH Primary.

He won a 35% plurality in a crowded field.  It's unclear how he would have done in a 1-on-1 match against Kasich, which is the scenario imagined in this poll.

That being said, that Pence result is pretty funny.

Pence doesn't have the benefit of being the incumbent president.  That's worth at least a few points of goodwill from the voters in your own party.  It's quite possible that if Trump resigned and Pence became prez, his standing in polls like this would improve markedly.

Not really. Moderate Ford barely beat Reagan in the NH '76 primary, and Ford was a great fit for the state. There's a difference between an elected incumbent and an unelected incumbent.

[uti2]

There's no way the Pence numbers are accurate, given he's the only adult in the West Wing.

He's probably leading Kasich something like 38-37.

Pence was never elected. Kasich would technically have greater justification for a bid against Pence.

[uti2]

Trump is an unpopular incumbent, Pence is the VP of an unpopular incumbent.

Pence's chances probably will be better if he's running as the incumbent president in 2020.

Pence is unelected. There would be an easy justification for a primary challenge to Pence. Pence wouldn't have an inherent right to the position. It should be pointed out that both LBJ in '64 and Ford in '76 struggled as unelected incumbents in their respective primaries.