Dear Exit Polls, Trump didn't improve among Latinos. (user search)
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  Dear Exit Polls, Trump didn't improve among Latinos. (search mode)
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Author Topic: Dear Exit Polls, Trump didn't improve among Latinos.  (Read 617 times)
OneJ
OneJ_
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« on: December 17, 2016, 11:38:49 PM »

As we should all know by now, exit polls can produce atrocious results (see Gore winning GA in 2000 or Kerry winning Ohio in 2004). However, what many people are overlooking is...

The African American vote? No, but were unfairly suppressed and are not the main topic.

The Asian American vote? Not quite. However, they likely had the same issues.

The Shy Trump vote? No. Republican voters just simply came home and non-educated Whites caught on to his message.

The Latino American vote? About time. Let's explore what exit polls got wrong this year on the Latino vote.

a. Only one poll
b. Small handful of selected precincts
c. Obvious Latino swings towards Hillary throughout states like Texas
d. The exit poll isn't designed to capture sub-populations like Latinos or African Americans
e. Even more

Links:
-http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2016/11/10/lies-damn-lies-and-exit-polls/
-https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/11/15/why-the-exit-polls-are-wrong-on-latino-votes/?utm_term=.272ba61067d0

Let the discussion begin.
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OneJ
OneJ_
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Posts: 4,833
United States


« Reply #1 on: December 18, 2016, 12:45:16 AM »

I don't recall the exit polls being that far off in 2004.  I think the early exit poll returns were in some states, but that can be explained by different voters voting after work.  But I agree with the overall point you're making that it's doubtful that Trump improved among hispanics or other minorities and his win in the electoral college/narrow loss in the popular vote was the result of uneducated whites jumping to him in droves.  Not sure about typical Republicans coming home though, as he struggled in suburbs that have always tended to vote Republican.

Hm. That's what I saw somewhere on Atlas (probably unreliable) about Kerry winning Ohio. I'll probably edit.
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