Is Obama destined to lose reelection?

[Kevin]

Is President Obama destined to lose reelection in 2012 and drag the Democratic Party's prospects down with him? I'm asking this question because even though there is a strong chance that Obama can pull what Clinton did after the 1994 midterm's and rebuild his political fortunes, he is facing much more daunting prospects then his Democratic predecessor did in the 1990's, As the current economic situation is very dire and appears to becoming even more so by the month, and predictions for the future aren't rosy ether as in 2011 the economic and financial situation in the US and abroad is predicted to be even worse with more bailouts here and in Europe, along the increasing possibility of double-dip recession and further shrinkage within the real estate market. Which to be fair alot of isn't his fault, as much of the recent turmoil is driven by economic events beyond US borders, and the fact that he inherited this crisis(even though he hasn't made it any better, if not worse)

Going on this I'm starting to believe that Obama will lose reelection in 2012 for the reasons I listed above, and that any Republican barring Palin or maybe Gingrich would beat him.


I now this sounds rash ad hackish to some to say this, this is just what my intuition is telling me.

[Kevin]

Republicans have been ceding about 250 electoral votes to the Democrat in every presidential election since 1992. Democrats have a solid bloc of states in the northeast, upper Midwest, and west coast that nets them about 250 electoral votes. Win those states and all the Democrat has to do is pick up another 20 EV's to win the election. Given that Obama is almost certain to win that bloc of states that every Democrat has won since 1992, the election will hinge on whether or not Obama can add to that bloc one of:

1) Virginia
2) Ohio
3) Florida

And/or add a combination of Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada to put him over 270.

I think that Obama is in a good position to do that with the African-American vote in Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and Nevada, the Hispanic vote in New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado, and the support that he has had in Iowa since his caucus win in 2008.

The big thing that Obama has going for him is the African-American vote. That is his firewall that will keep Republicans from being able to break through in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan. It also helps him in a state like Virginia, where if he maximizes the African-American turnout, it makes that state more competitive.

Considering that the Southwest has been trending towards the Democrats since at least 2000, I would say Obama only has to win Ohio, and he's won the election. To be honest I don't see where everyone's getting the idea that Obama is in a position to lose states like Michigan, Wisconsin and New Mexico, all states which voted for him by upwards of 55%.

Considering the beatings the Democrats took in both Michigan and Wisconsin don't be so sure as they both trended right this past election. Especially Wisconsin, which threw out a well liked prominent, entrenched Democratic Senator, elected a Republican Governor along with GOP majorities in the State Legislature, in addition to giving Congressional Republicans a majority of the House delegation from the state. Michigan also gave the Republicans a solid victory in the Governor's race, and majorities in the State legislature. So overall, some Republican definate inroads were made into these "solidly" Democratic states.

[Kevin]

Destined clearly isn't the right word. Is he on the road to losing re-election? Yes, I believe so...but we're two years away. Things can change. I think his style is going to be the big problem. He's set on standing his ground. If things don't drastically change for the better and he is still set in his ways, he's very likely to lose. I only say "very likely" because my party could screw things up.

Perhaps I wasn't right using the world "destined" as things do change, but the present and projected future doesn't look too good for President Obama's reelection chances or the Democratic Party in general.