Would Ted Cruz have won? We're about to find out from Gillespie.... (user search)
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  Would Ted Cruz have won? We're about to find out from Gillespie.... (search mode)
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Author Topic: Would Ted Cruz have won? We're about to find out from Gillespie....  (Read 3158 times)
Pericles
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« on: October 28, 2017, 11:09:58 PM »

He polled quite well in Colorado and could have won it with more college-educated whites and Hispanics than Trump got.
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Pericles
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2017, 06:58:41 PM »

Cruz win scenario

Ted Cruz/John Kasich-Republican: 269 EV 48.02%
Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine-Democratic: 269 EV 47.38%
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Pericles
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2017, 07:07:35 PM »

Clinton win scenario

Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine-Democratic: 314 EV 49.23
Ted Cruz/John Kasich-Republican: 224 EV 46.07%
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Pericles
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2017, 10:22:50 PM »

Cruz win scenario

Ted Cruz/John Kasich-Republican: 269 EV 48.02%
Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine-Democratic: 269 EV 47.38%

Why does he win CO but lose WI?

Colorado was where he polled better and it was the tipping-point state in 2012. Cruz does better with college-educated whites and Hispanics in this scenario to take Colorado but worse with WWC voters and doesn't have Trump's Midwest surge.
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Pericles
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2017, 10:36:55 PM »

^While he might have underperformed Trump in some of the rural areas, I think he would have made up for it in the WOW counties. Plus, there were polls showing him very competitive in WI. I doubt Cruz does THAT much better in the Denver suburbs or with Hispanics (I'd say he loses the state by 2-3 points), but obviously we'll never find out.  

He was competitive in WI but more so in CO. Don't think that just because he loses a state he isn't competitive there. Cruz makes up Trump's margin in CO to get it by less than 1% while WI goes for Clinton narrowly, maybe 2% margin.
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