Is Trump now the favorite?

[ursulahx]

Possible that Trump's polls will tick upwards in the next few days, following Phlegm-gazi, but normality will resume shortly afterwards. The answer is obviously no.

Still eight weeks to go, so enough time for things to change in either direction. Remember Trump was in meltdown only a month ago, and talk of a Clinton landslide suddenly didn't seem silly. Now the race appears to be neck and neck (with Clinton having an edge). That's a long way from saying Trump is the favourite, though.

[ursulahx]

Here's the thing: there are still nearly eight weeks to go. It's easy for liberal or centrist voters who are unsure about Clinton to tell pollsters they're not going to vote for her, perhaps because of a reaction to Phlegm-gazi or Deplorables. As the election nears, and they realise what a big deal this is, they're going to be faced with the stark question, "you gonna vote for Trump?"

Some of them may say, "yeah, give him a chance". But most of them will say, "hell, no." If, at that stage, it looks like Clinton has a clear lead, these people may stay home. But if it looks like Trump has a chance, expect them to head to the ballot box (especially when the excellent Clinton GOTV operation will be reminding them to).